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为检验煤炭消耗、污染排放与区域经济增长之间的关系,利用中国1998-2014年30个省际动态工业污染的面板数据,通过线性函数对煤炭消耗与污染排放之间的关系进行拟合,设立多元回归方程,从地区经济发展角度对影响煤炭消耗的经济因素进行检验。结果表明:(1)煤炭消耗量的增加会导致各项污染物排放量的增加,煤炭消耗对废气排放的影响最为显著,对烟(粉)尘排放的影响次之,然后是SO2,而对废水排放的影响最小。(2)煤炭消耗对污染排放的影响呈现较为明显的地区差异,即煤炭消耗对华东、华中和华北地区污染排放的影响要高于华南、西南、西北和东北地区。(3)全国层面的技术进步、能源消费结构与产业结构变动、城市化水平提高、地方政府干预经济强度增加、地方政府能源工业投资提高会增加煤炭消耗量;产权结构优化、能源价格水平和对外开放水平提高会减少煤炭消耗量。而七大区域内,各经济因素的变动对煤炭消耗的影响呈现较强的地区差异。基于实证结果,认为应通过能源消费结构调整,从源头上控制污染排放;各地区在明确污染排放控制目标的基础上,加强污染排放控制的区域合作;要注重转变经济增长方式,主动应对环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的到来。
To test the relationship between coal consumption, pollution discharge and regional economic growth, the panel data of 30 provincial industrial pollution in China from 1998 to 2014 were used to fit the relationship between coal consumption and pollution discharge through a linear function. The establishment of multiple regression equations, from the perspective of regional economic development on the economic impact of coal consumption test. The results show as follows: (1) The increase of coal consumption will lead to the increase of pollutant emissions. Coal consumption will have the most significant impact on the emission of exhaust gas, followed by SO2, and then Wastewater discharge has the least impact. (2) The impact of coal consumption on pollution discharge shows obvious regional differences. Coal consumption affects the pollution discharge in East China, Central China and North China more than that in South China, Southwest China, Northwest China and Northeast China. (3) Technological progress, changes in energy consumption structure and industrial structure at the national level, improvement of urbanization level, increase in the economic intensity of intervention by local governments, and increased investment by local governments in the energy industry will increase coal consumption; property structure optimization, energy price levels and external Increased openness will reduce coal consumption. In the seven regions, the influence of changes in economic factors on coal consumption presents strong regional differences. Based on the empirical results, we believe that pollution control should be controlled at the source through structural adjustment of energy consumption. All regions should strengthen regional cooperation on pollution emission control based on the clear target of pollution emission control. They should pay attention to changing the mode of economic growth and take the initiative to deal with environmental banks The arrival of the Tieitz curve inflection point.