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Seven years after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008， the global economy is not yet quite out of the woods and， overall， recovery remains sluggish and not sufficiently robust. As the second largest economy in the world， China has also bidden a farewell to seemingly miraculous runaway economic expansion and seen its growth pace level off at 7 percent in the first half of this year， arousing extensive concerns over its longterm economic outlook.
“Given the global slowdown， the 7-percent growth China achieved was no easy accomplishment，” said Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the opening ceremony of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2015， or the Ninth Summer Davos， which ran from September 9 to 11， who also noted that for a $10-trillion economy， such a growth actually generates more increase in volume than did double-digit growth in the past. Meanwhile， the ongoing structural reform has already yielded encouraging results—the services industry now accounts for half of China’s GDP， consumption contributes 60 percent to total growth， growth in hi-tech industries is notably higher than the entire industrial sector and new economic growth points are rapidly taking shape.
Zhu Min， Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund， believes GDP growth is not the point， and that the major challenge China now confronts is accomplishing structural transformation. He stated that over the next few years， old economic growth models will be supplanted by new ones， which will be more innovative， technology-intensive and sustainable in nature.
Over the past decade， China’s economy has been predominantly driven by investment， especially in infrastructure construction and real estate， leading to the piling up of debts. Now the nation is shifting its economic focus to consumption and the services industry， said Rich Lesser， Global CEO of Boston Consulting Group， who believes the process will be fraught with uncertainties and no end of fluctuations.
As it stands， China’s steady growth， which has been generated by a more pragmatic economic structure， has already substantially benefited its people. In the first half of this year， a total of 7.18 million new urban jobs were created， meaning 72 percent of China’s annual target has already been met ahead of schedule； the unemployment rate in big cities was in and around 5.1 percent； per-capita disposable income grew faster than the economy， with the income of rural residents growing even faster than that of urban residents； price levels have been kept fundamentally stable； and total retail sales increased by more than 10 percent. Moreover， China contributed about 30 percent to global growth. With commodities prices dropping markedly in the global market， the growth of China’s foreign trade volume is slowing， while the actual amount of commodities China imports has continued to rise.
As emerging industries grow at a remarkable pace， traditional industries are decelerating. To ensure employment is not affected and the economy grows at an optimum level， it has become apparent that the Chinese Government needs to lower borrowing costs， to encourage local governments to complete protracted projects and to fully realize corporate reform.
China now has seen the leverage ratios of its enterprises， economy and government debt climbing， though they remain relatively low compared with other nations. “In the process of deleveraging， adjustments will be made in financial policies， which is necessary amidst a slowdown，” said Wang Hongzhang， Chairman of China Construction Bank， who argued only healthy and strong financial institutions will survive these adjustments， and they will better serve the real economy and compete on the global arena in a more reliable way.
If the developed world fails to resume its former pace of growth， China will continue to find that exports turn turtle to shore up the economy and will thus focus instead on bolstering domestic consumption. “As a middle-income country， China still has huge potential on this front. Beyond that， the nation can also feed off infrastructure construction， environmental protection， urbanization and so on，” said Justin Yifu Lin， a professor from National School of Development of Peking University and former chief economist and senior vice president of the World Bank.
Lin believes that China will maintain a 7-percent-or-so growth over the next five to 10 years， and therefore， will continue to contribute one fourth or one third to global growth.
Comparative advantages
In his speech， Premier Li noted that as countries at different stages of development possess their respective strengths， global cooperation on production can match supply with demand effectively， and generate greater demand through innovation on the supply side.
Getting down to specifics， developed countries have advanced key technologies and equipment， but the demand for their products is limited owing to high prices. Conversely， developing countries may en- joy abundant natural resources and low labor costs， yet most of their industries and products inhabit the low end. From this perspective China is aptly placed in the middle with its capacity for manufacturing goodquality and affordable mid-range equipment， its strong engineering and service capabilities， and the cushion of large foreign exchange reserves. “China’s role could be that of a bridge that links the parties together，” said Premier Li， noting that the three parties concerned should pool their comparative strengths， and provide quality equipment and products at relatively low prices to bring down construction costs and better meet the needs of different countries.
To promote such an approach of global cooperation， these countries need to establish certain intergovernmental or inter-business cooperation mechanisms， formulate a framework plan to make clear cooperative scope， lay down a project list and make financing arrangements， said Xu Shaoshi， Chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission.
Xu pointed out that China has already preliminarily chosen 15 countries in Asia， Africa， Latin America and Europe to carry out production capacity cooperation. He also claimed that Kazakhstan has been deemed a pivot in Central Asia， in accordance with China’s initiatives to build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.
Wu Xinbo， Vice Dean of the Institute of International Issues of Fudan University， suggested the Belt and Road Initiative is primarily designed to help the countries in order to improve their infrastructure construction and create more trade and investment opportunities， which will in turn boost external demand for China.
Taking stock
The impact of the drastic plunge in China’s stock market prices was so great that its reverberations were felt even throughout the global financial market. Zhang suggested that China’s stock market at its present stage still needs improvement， arguing that authorities should assist its transformation and learn from its global equivalents.
Li Daokui， a professor at Tsinghua University， proposed as distinct from the scenario in developed countries， China’s stock market is barely linked to the real economy. This means that even when the real economy is sound and propitious， the outlook for the stock market may appear bleak and gloomy.
In fact， the largest impact brought by the turbulent Chinese stock market is psychological in nature， said Wang， who also pointed out that positive results have arisen from the People’s Bank of China’s injection of more liquidity into the market and its suspension of initial public offerings.
Overseas-based experts were quick to dispel notions of the market slump having long-term repercussions for the broader Chinese economy. Helen Zhu， head of China equities at global asset manager BlackRock in Hong Kong， said that in a market that is roughly 80-percent retail-based， volatility is simply a given. Former U.S. Federal Reserve board member and University of Chicago professor Randall Kroszner emphasized focusing on the fundamentals and advised against being overly swayed by the condition of the stock market. As he put it， “Sometimes， volatility is just noise.”
Wang observed that current signs are anything but bleak， pointing out that from July 9 to August 10， China’s stock market rose 400 points， which， to some extent， has bolstered market confidence and exerted a positive influence on the global economy.
All in all， the future looks bright for the Chinese economy. The next steps for the Central Government will be easing restrictions on the access of private capital to the financial sector， and developing private banks， financial guarantees and financial leasing so as to better support the real economy.
“Given the global slowdown， the 7-percent growth China achieved was no easy accomplishment，” said Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the opening ceremony of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2015， or the Ninth Summer Davos， which ran from September 9 to 11， who also noted that for a $10-trillion economy， such a growth actually generates more increase in volume than did double-digit growth in the past. Meanwhile， the ongoing structural reform has already yielded encouraging results—the services industry now accounts for half of China’s GDP， consumption contributes 60 percent to total growth， growth in hi-tech industries is notably higher than the entire industrial sector and new economic growth points are rapidly taking shape.
Zhu Min， Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund， believes GDP growth is not the point， and that the major challenge China now confronts is accomplishing structural transformation. He stated that over the next few years， old economic growth models will be supplanted by new ones， which will be more innovative， technology-intensive and sustainable in nature.
Over the past decade， China’s economy has been predominantly driven by investment， especially in infrastructure construction and real estate， leading to the piling up of debts. Now the nation is shifting its economic focus to consumption and the services industry， said Rich Lesser， Global CEO of Boston Consulting Group， who believes the process will be fraught with uncertainties and no end of fluctuations.
As it stands， China’s steady growth， which has been generated by a more pragmatic economic structure， has already substantially benefited its people. In the first half of this year， a total of 7.18 million new urban jobs were created， meaning 72 percent of China’s annual target has already been met ahead of schedule； the unemployment rate in big cities was in and around 5.1 percent； per-capita disposable income grew faster than the economy， with the income of rural residents growing even faster than that of urban residents； price levels have been kept fundamentally stable； and total retail sales increased by more than 10 percent. Moreover， China contributed about 30 percent to global growth. With commodities prices dropping markedly in the global market， the growth of China’s foreign trade volume is slowing， while the actual amount of commodities China imports has continued to rise.
As emerging industries grow at a remarkable pace， traditional industries are decelerating. To ensure employment is not affected and the economy grows at an optimum level， it has become apparent that the Chinese Government needs to lower borrowing costs， to encourage local governments to complete protracted projects and to fully realize corporate reform.
China now has seen the leverage ratios of its enterprises， economy and government debt climbing， though they remain relatively low compared with other nations. “In the process of deleveraging， adjustments will be made in financial policies， which is necessary amidst a slowdown，” said Wang Hongzhang， Chairman of China Construction Bank， who argued only healthy and strong financial institutions will survive these adjustments， and they will better serve the real economy and compete on the global arena in a more reliable way.
If the developed world fails to resume its former pace of growth， China will continue to find that exports turn turtle to shore up the economy and will thus focus instead on bolstering domestic consumption. “As a middle-income country， China still has huge potential on this front. Beyond that， the nation can also feed off infrastructure construction， environmental protection， urbanization and so on，” said Justin Yifu Lin， a professor from National School of Development of Peking University and former chief economist and senior vice president of the World Bank.
Lin believes that China will maintain a 7-percent-or-so growth over the next five to 10 years， and therefore， will continue to contribute one fourth or one third to global growth.
Comparative advantages
In his speech， Premier Li noted that as countries at different stages of development possess their respective strengths， global cooperation on production can match supply with demand effectively， and generate greater demand through innovation on the supply side.
Getting down to specifics， developed countries have advanced key technologies and equipment， but the demand for their products is limited owing to high prices. Conversely， developing countries may en- joy abundant natural resources and low labor costs， yet most of their industries and products inhabit the low end. From this perspective China is aptly placed in the middle with its capacity for manufacturing goodquality and affordable mid-range equipment， its strong engineering and service capabilities， and the cushion of large foreign exchange reserves. “China’s role could be that of a bridge that links the parties together，” said Premier Li， noting that the three parties concerned should pool their comparative strengths， and provide quality equipment and products at relatively low prices to bring down construction costs and better meet the needs of different countries.
To promote such an approach of global cooperation， these countries need to establish certain intergovernmental or inter-business cooperation mechanisms， formulate a framework plan to make clear cooperative scope， lay down a project list and make financing arrangements， said Xu Shaoshi， Chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission.
Xu pointed out that China has already preliminarily chosen 15 countries in Asia， Africa， Latin America and Europe to carry out production capacity cooperation. He also claimed that Kazakhstan has been deemed a pivot in Central Asia， in accordance with China’s initiatives to build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.
Wu Xinbo， Vice Dean of the Institute of International Issues of Fudan University， suggested the Belt and Road Initiative is primarily designed to help the countries in order to improve their infrastructure construction and create more trade and investment opportunities， which will in turn boost external demand for China.
Taking stock
The impact of the drastic plunge in China’s stock market prices was so great that its reverberations were felt even throughout the global financial market. Zhang suggested that China’s stock market at its present stage still needs improvement， arguing that authorities should assist its transformation and learn from its global equivalents.
Li Daokui， a professor at Tsinghua University， proposed as distinct from the scenario in developed countries， China’s stock market is barely linked to the real economy. This means that even when the real economy is sound and propitious， the outlook for the stock market may appear bleak and gloomy.
In fact， the largest impact brought by the turbulent Chinese stock market is psychological in nature， said Wang， who also pointed out that positive results have arisen from the People’s Bank of China’s injection of more liquidity into the market and its suspension of initial public offerings.
Overseas-based experts were quick to dispel notions of the market slump having long-term repercussions for the broader Chinese economy. Helen Zhu， head of China equities at global asset manager BlackRock in Hong Kong， said that in a market that is roughly 80-percent retail-based， volatility is simply a given. Former U.S. Federal Reserve board member and University of Chicago professor Randall Kroszner emphasized focusing on the fundamentals and advised against being overly swayed by the condition of the stock market. As he put it， “Sometimes， volatility is just noise.”
Wang observed that current signs are anything but bleak， pointing out that from July 9 to August 10， China’s stock market rose 400 points， which， to some extent， has bolstered market confidence and exerted a positive influence on the global economy.
All in all， the future looks bright for the Chinese economy. The next steps for the Central Government will be easing restrictions on the access of private capital to the financial sector， and developing private banks， financial guarantees and financial leasing so as to better support the real economy.