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粮食,不仅是人们日常生活的必需食品,而且还是维护国家经济发展和政治稳定的战略物资。为保护农民利益、保障粮食市场供应,国家从2005年开始对重点粮食品种在粮食主产区实行最低收购价格政策。但是关于实施最低收购价格的政策是否积极效果无法评定,学界一般通过比较政策实施前后粮食种植面积是否有显著性变化来衡量粮食最低收购价政策实施的效果,但是因为影响种植面积的因素很多,所以不能直接认为该变化就是收购价导致的,因此我们根据题设构建模型,将其种植面积为因变量,以城乡差距、劳动力人口、进出口贸易、家庭负担为自变量来构建模型。结果显示进出口贸易及家庭负担增量与种植面积增量是负相关关系,最低收购价格和城乡收入差距增量和种植面积都是正相关关系。
Food is not only an essential food for people’s daily life, but also a strategic material for safeguarding the country’s economic development and political stability. In order to protect the interests of peasants and ensure the supply of grain markets, the state started from 2005 to implement the policy of setting minimum purchase price for key grain varieties in the main grain producing areas. However, whether the policy on the implementation of the minimum purchase price can not be evaluated in a positive way, scholars generally measure the effect of the policy on the minimum purchase price of grain by comparing the grain acreage before and after the implementation of the policy. However, because of the many factors affecting the area under cultivation, We can not directly think that the change is the result of the purchase price. Therefore, we construct a model according to the topic and build a model based on the planting area as the dependent variable, the urban-rural gap, the labor force population, the import and export trade and the household burden as independent variables. The results show that the increase of import and export trade and family burden is negatively correlated with the increase of planting area. The minimum purchase price is positively correlated with the increment of urban-rural income gap and planting area.