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本文首先通过总量特征、区域分布以及贸易集中度三方面考察世界汽车贸易格局变化,结果表明,汽车产业仍然属于高垄断行业,以德国、日本、美国为首的贸易集中度达到了40%以上。之后,本文选择2002—2012年道路车辆41个细分产品的贸易数据,计算了主要贸易大国汽车产品和汽车行业的出口复杂度指标,确定了全球41个汽车产品的技术复杂度以及中国汽车产业在全球价值链体系的位置变化。研究发现,自2002年以来,我国汽车产业出口复杂度不断提升,高技术复杂度汽车产品出口份额也不断提高;但与发达国家相比,仍有不小差距,有近38.5%的汽车出口产品处于全球价值链的低端。最后,我们对中国汽车产业的价值链升级提出可行性建议。在汽车行业,少有学者通过产品技术复杂度和出口复杂度来考察产业价值链水平的变化,本文的研究具有探索和启示意义。
The paper first examines the changes in the pattern of the world automobile trade from three aspects: total quantity, regional distribution and trade concentration. The results show that the automobile industry still belongs to the high-monopoly industries, and the concentration of trade led by Germany, Japan and the United States has reached more than 40%. After that, this article chooses the trade data of 41 subdivided products of road vehicles from 2002 to 2012, calculates the export complexity index of major trading nation’s automobile products and automobile industry, determines the technical complexity of 41 global automobile products as well as China’s automobile industry Changes in the location of the global value chain system. The study found that since 2002, China’s auto industry exports continue to increase complexity, high-tech complexity of the share of automotive exports also continue to improve; but compared with developed countries, there is still a small gap, nearly 38.5% of car exports At the low end of the global value chain. Finally, we put forward feasible suggestions on upgrading the value chain of China’s auto industry. Few scholars in the automotive industry examine the changes of the level of the industrial value chain through the technical complexity and export complexity of the products. The research in this paper has the significance of exploration and inspiration.