随着预测维修在企业中的推广 ,故障预报技术逐渐得到人们的重视。本文提出了一种基于强跟踪滤波器的自适应故障预报方法 ,能够对一类带时变参数的非线性系统进行故障预报。并且通过仿真验证了当系统带有未知噪声时 ,这种方法依然具有较好的故障预报能力 With the forecast maintenance in the promotion of enterprises, fault forecasting technology has gradually gained people’s attention. In this paper, an adaptive fault prediction method based on strong tracking filter is proposed, which can predict the failure of a class of nonlinear systems with time-varying parameters. Simulation results show that this method still has a good ability of forecasting failure when the system has unknown noise