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运用协整理论分析中国1980-2012年城市化对能源消费的影响,并探讨了城市化对不同能源消费主体的影响,依据1997年以来30个省份的面板数据,运用STIRPAT模型分析了省域城市化对能源消费的影响,并对东中西不同区域的影响差异进行分析。结果显示:城市化与能源消费量存在长期的因果关系,快速城市化进程对能源消费产生了巨大推动作用,城市化水平每提高1%,能源消费将增加1.814%;生产消费占能源消费的主要部分,随着城市化的推进,第一产业和工业消费所占比重减小,建筑业和交通运输等服务业所占比重增加,城乡人均生活能源消费差距越来越小。省域城市化对能源消费具有正向影响,但其作用强度要显著小于人口规模、经济状况和工业水平等因素,东中西不同区域城市化对能源消费的影响作用存在明显差异,东部和中部地区城市化对能源消费有显著的正向影响,且中部地区城市化对能源消费的影响强度更大,西部地区城市化对能源消费产生负向影响,最后从城市化视角对能源政策的制定提出建议。
Using cointegration theory to analyze the impact of urbanization on energy consumption in China from 1980 to 2012 and discuss the impact of urbanization on different energy consumption subjects. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces since 1997, using STIRPAT model, On the impact of energy consumption, and analysis of the differences between eastern and western areas of different regions. The results show that there is a long-term causal relationship between urbanization and energy consumption, and rapid urbanization has a huge impetus to energy consumption. For every 1% increase in urbanization, energy consumption will increase by 1.814%; and production and consumption account for the major energy consumption In part, with the advancing urbanization, the proportion of primary industry and industrial consumption has decreased, and the proportion of service industries such as construction industry and transportation industry has increased. The gap between urban and rural per capita living energy consumption has been getting smaller and smaller. The provincial urbanization has a positive impact on energy consumption, but its intensity of action is significantly less than the population size, economic status and industrial level. The impact of urbanization on energy consumption in different regions of east, east and west has significant differences. Energy consumption in eastern and central China Urbanization has a significant positive impact on energy consumption, and urbanization in the central region has a greater impact on energy consumption. Urbanization in the western region has a negative impact on energy consumption. Finally, suggestions on the formulation of energy policies from the perspective of urbanization .