人们一直生活在不确定性的条件之下。但如何处理不确定性,如何造就安全,不同的社会构成有着不同的方法。本文探讨了现代社会对不确定性的处置。现代社会总是在试图将不确定性概念化为与行动相关的、有原因的、可测算或可预见的“风险”。很长一段时间,这样的处置思路和方法是相当成功的。然而,在“风险社会”的条件下,这种思路和方法越来越难以行得通了。特别是在遇到“新风险”的情况时,试图将不确定性概念化为一种可预测的、可逐渐掌控的风险,基本上是徒劳的。这就是现代社会必须有一种“新的不确定文化”、必须对此文化作深入思考的原因。 People have been living under the conditions of uncertainty. But there are different ways of how to deal with uncertainty and how to make it safe, with different social formations. This article explores the treatment of uncertainty in modern society. Modern society is always trying to conceptualize uncertainty as action-related, measurable or predictable “risk.” For a long time, such a treatment ideas and methods is quite successful. However, under the condition of “risk society”, such ideas and methods have become increasingly difficult to work through. In particular, in the face of “new risks,” attempts to conceptualize uncertainty as a predictable and gradually manageable risk are largely futile. This is why modern society must have a “new and uncertain culture,” and must think deeply about this culture.