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[目的]探索蔬菜稳定供应具体影响因素。[方法]运用1978~2013年共35年的我国蔬菜供给和价格的时间序列数据,应用Nerlove模型实证分析蔬菜供给反应。[结果]蔬菜供给的短期价格弹性较低,容易引起蔬菜价格的剧烈波动;蔬菜供给的长期价格弹性较高,蔬菜供需将最终走向平衡。[结论]蔬菜预期价格受以往多期实际价格影响,蔬菜供应者将综合考虑以往多期的实际价格变化来安排蔬菜种植计划。
[Objective] To explore the specific factors that affect the stable supply of vegetables. [Method] Using the time series data of Chinese vegetable supply and price from 1978 to 2013 for a total of 35 years, the Nerlove model was used to empirically analyze the vegetable supply response. [Result] The short-term price elasticity of vegetable supply was low, which could easily lead to the drastic fluctuation of vegetable prices. The long-term price elasticity of vegetable supply was high, and the supply and demand of vegetables would eventually balance. [Conclusion] The expected price of vegetables is affected by the actual prices of many years in the past. The vegetable suppliers will arrange vegetable planting plans by considering the actual price changes in the past.