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从微观能源技术层面与宏观经济系统相结合的角度,分析中国实现碳排放高峰的煤电技术组合的可能性及其相应社会经济影响。微观层面,选取目前最有发展前景和竞争力的四种洁净燃煤发电技术,即超(超)临界机组(SC/USC)、常压循环流化床燃烧(CFBC)、整体煤气化联合循环(IGCC),并设计不同的技术组合情景方案,模拟不同技术组合情景下中国可能出现的碳排放峰值和年份;宏观层面,将不同洁净煤技术发展的成本导入PIC模型,模拟洁净煤技术发展对经济增长、就业以及行业的影响,从而可以评价不同洁净煤技术发展的成本效益。研究结果表明,在基准技术情景下,由于各项洁净煤技术的发展力度相对较小,2050年前并不能实现中国碳排放峰值;而在强低碳技术情景下,即分别加大四种洁净煤技术的发展力度,除CFBC技术外,其它三种技术的发展都促使中国分别在2039年、2039年、2040年出现碳排放峰值,其中IGCC技术最具发展潜力。因此,中国完全可以依靠优化火力发电技术组合来推动碳排放峰值的到来。
From the perspective of combining micro-energy technologies with macroeconomic systems, we analyze the possibility of China’s coal-power technology portfolio to achieve its peak carbon emissions and its corresponding socio-economic impacts. At the microcosmic level, four kinds of clean coal-fired power generation technologies with the most promising prospect and competitiveness are selected, namely SC / USC, CFBC, IGCC (IGCC), and designed different scenarios of S & T scenarios to simulate possible peaks and years of carbon emissions in China under different technology portfolio scenarios. At the macro level, the costs of different clean coal technologies were introduced into the PIC model to simulate the development of clean coal technologies Economic growth, employment and the impact of the industry so that the cost-effectiveness of different clean coal technologies can be evaluated. The results of the study show that under the baseline scenario, since the development of clean coal technologies is relatively small, China’s carbon emission peak can not be achieved by 2050; in the case of strong low-carbon technologies, four kinds of clean The development of coal technology, in addition to CFBC technology, the other three technologies have contributed to China in 2039, 2039 and 2040 peak carbon emissions, including IGCC technology has the most potential for development. Therefore, China can rely on optimizing the thermal power technology portfolio to promote the arrival of carbon emissions peak.