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建立花期物候模型可实现观赏植物花期的精确预报,为“樱花节”、“桃花节”等时令旅游活动的开展提供重要依据。本研究选择花期观赏价值高、分布范围广泛的四种典型观赏植物进行研究,包括桃(Amygdalus persica)、杏(Armeniaca vulgaris)、紫荆(Cercis chinensis)和紫丁香(Syringa oblata)。利用这些植物在中国42个站点的始花期和末花期观测资料及对应的气象资料,建立并检验了可模拟不同站点和年份始花期和末花期的时空物候模型,并利用该模型重建了1962—2013年四种植物的始花期、末花期和花期长度序列,分析了其时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)时空物候模型能够较准确地模拟大区域和长时间的花期变化,对始花期、末花期和花期长度模拟的均方根误差多在4~6d之间;(2)模拟得到的花期物候存在一定的地理分布规律,其中随纬度的变化最为显著。纬度每升高1°,始花期和末花期推迟1.23~4.46d,花期长度缩短0.07~1.47d;(3)过去50年,所有植物平均始花期、末花期均显著提前,提前趋势在(0.95~1.61)d/10a之间。紫丁香始花期与末花期的提前趋势空间差异较小,而其他三种植物的花期提前趋势在分布区北部明显强于南部;(4)花期长度在过去50年间变化较弱,除紫丁香表现出较强的延长趋势(0.20d/10a)外,其他三种植物的花期长度变化趋势在(-0.01~0.07)d/10a之间,且具有很强的空间异质性。这些研究结果为典型观赏植物花期物候模拟及对气候变化的响应评估提供了科学依据。
The establishment of flowering phenology model can realize accurate forecast of the flowering period of ornamental plants and provide important basis for the development of seasonal tourism activities such as “Cherry Blossom Festival” and “Peach Blossom Festival”. In this study, four typical ornamental plants with high ornamental value and wide distribution were selected to study, including Amygdalus persica, Armeniaca vulgaris, Cercis chinensis and Syringa oblata. The spatio-temporal phenological model that can simulate the initial flowering and the late flowering of different sites and years was established and tested using the initial and late flowering observation data and the corresponding meteorological data of 42 plants in China. The model was used to reconstruct the 1962- The sequence of the initial flowering, the last flowering and the flowering of four plants in 2013 were analyzed, and their temporal and spatial variation characteristics were analyzed. The results show that: (1) Spatiotemporal and phenological models can simulate the flowering changes in large area and long time more accurately, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulation for flowering, end flowering and flowering duration is more than 4 ~ 6d; (2) Obtained flowering phenology there is a certain geographical distribution, of which the most significant change with latitude. For each 50 ° increase in latitude, the initial flowering and the last flowering were postponed by 1.23-4.46 d and the flowering duration was shortened by 0.07-1.47 d. (3) The average flowering and flowering stages of all plants were significantly advanced in the past 50 years, with an early trend of (0.95 ~ 1.61) d / 10a. The trend of early flowering stage and late flowering stage of lilac was little, while the flowering advance trend of the other three plants was significantly stronger in the northern part than in the southern part of the distribution area. (4) The flowering period changed little in the past 50 years. In addition to the performance of lilac (0.20d / 10a), the florescence length trend of the other three plants ranged from (-0.01 ~ 0.07) d / 10a, and had a strong spatial heterogeneity. These findings provide a scientific basis for the simulation of flowering phenology of typical ornamental plants and assessment of the response to climate change.