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鉴于传统“预测-应对”的不足,采用“情景-应对”模式,借助情景的灵活性,从演化趋势途径提升对自然灾害的认知-行为能力。首先,归纳总结自然灾害的特征,构建自然灾害链情景态势组合推演框架,根据框架提取出组合推演的3个主要内容;其次,对本体论中的赋予相应的语义,用以自然灾害链情景表达;最后,设计自然灾害链情景态势组合推演流程,解释流程中的关键步骤,运用信息扩散理论获得前因情景要素发生概率,借助频率思想获得前因情景要素下后序情景要素组合发生的条件概率,从而获得前因情景要素向后序情景要素的转化概率评估值,挖掘组合推演规则,进行用例分析。
In view of the traditional “forecast-coping” deficiencies, the “situational-coping” mode is adopted. With the flexibility of the scenarios, the cognitive-behavioral abilities of natural disasters are promoted from the trend of evolutionary trends. Firstly, the paper summarizes the characteristics of natural disasters and constructs a framework for deducing the situation of natural disasters. Based on the framework, the author deduces the three main contents of the combined deduction. Secondly, it gives semantics to in ontology for natural disasters Finally, we design the process of deducing the natural disaster chain scenarios and explain the key steps in the process. We use the theory of information diffusion to obtain the probability of occurrence of the antecedent elements, The conditional probability of the scene elements to the scene factors of the previous order is obtained, and the combination deduction rules are obtained to analyze the use cases.