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本文以新开放条件为背景,采用协整理论、脉冲响应函数和Granger因果检验方法就外资、外贸与长三角区域经济增长关系进行了实证分析,结果表明:(1)无论是短期,还是长期,FDI和出口都推动了经济增长,而进口只在短期内促进了经济增长,长期促进作用并不显现。(2)在短期内,FDI的经济增长效应和贸易效应存在较大的差异,前者明显大于后者。(3)FDI、出口与经济增长存在长期双向因果关系,进口只是经济增长的短期单向原因。文章最后提出相应的对策建议。
Based on the new open conditions, the paper uses the cointegration theory, impulse response function and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between foreign capital, foreign trade and the economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta. The results show that: (1) Whether short-term or long-term, Both FDI and exports have promoted economic growth. However, imports have only promoted economic growth in the short term, and the role of long-term promotion is not apparent. (2) In the short term, there is a big difference between the economic growth effect and the trade effect of FDI. The former is obviously larger than the latter. (3) There is a long-term two-way causal relationship between FDI, exports and economic growth. Imports are only one-way short-term reasons for economic growth. Finally, the article puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.