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2014年中国玉米丰收,产量为2.156 7亿t,国家在东北地区执行临储玉米收购政策,收购总量达8 400万t,同比增加1 400万t以上,市场看涨预期较强。然而,受进口高粱、大麦等谷物大量替代玉米、市场对收购政策预期发生改变、国家调低临储收购价格等因素影响,2015年8月玉米价格大幅下跌。2015年东北地区玉米单产因干旱降低,但全国玉米产量因种植面积扩大而继续增加。尽管估计2014/15年度玉米饲用和工业消费增加,但市场依然供过于求。预计2015/16年度,玉米价格受到临储收购政策支撑有望出现“阶段性”上涨,但因国内玉米供给能力庞大,市场价格面临下行压力,价格上涨应是阶段性的反弹。
China’s corn harvest in 2014 was 2.156 700 million tons. The state implemented the policy of temporary storage of corn in northeast China with a total acquisition volume of 84 million tons, an increase of 14 million tons or more over the same period of the previous year. The bull market is expected to be bullish. However, due to the substantial substitution of maize with imports of grains such as sorghum and barley, the market is expected to change the acquisition policy and the state reduces the Provisional Stock Price and other factors. In August 2015, the price of maize dropped sharply. In 2015, the yield of maize in Northeast China decreased due to drought, but the national corn production continued to increase due to the expansion of planting area. Despite the estimated increase in maize and industrial consumption in 2014/15, the market is still oversupplied. It is estimated that in 2015/16, the price of corn will be supported by the Pro-Temporal Buying Policy and is expected to rise in stages. However, due to the huge supply capacity of domestic corn and downward pressure on market prices, the price rise should be a phased rebound.