木材产量是一个随机的、动态的复杂系统,运用传统的单一预测方法对其产量的预测精度较低。为了作出准确的中长期预测,选择灰色预测与马尔科夫预测相结合,用马尔科夫方法对灰色预测值进行修正。通过对比,发现修正后的灰色-马尔科夫模型比单一的GM(1,1)模型相对误差更小,预测效果更好。 Wood production is a random, dynamic and complex system. The traditional single forecasting method is less accurate in predicting its output. In order to make accurate mid- and long-term predictions, the combination of grey prediction and Markov prediction was used to correct the gray prediction value using the Markov method. By comparison, it is found that the modified Gray-Markov model has a smaller relative error than a single GM (1,1) model and has a better prediction effect.