一、引言交通运输业历来被认为是国民经济的先行官。在中国民航业也长期存在着“2倍定律”的说法:即民航运输增长率是国民经济增长率的2倍,然而,我们在进行文献检索时,发现有关的研究却非常少。刘英在2000年发文讨论了民航业务量增长速度与国内生产总值(以下简称GDP)增长速度的 I. Introduction The transportation industry has always been regarded as the forerunner of the national economy. In the civil aviation industry in China, there is also a longstanding “double law” argument: that is, the growth rate of civil aviation transport is twice that of the national economic growth rate. However, when we conducted the literature search, we found very few related studies. Liu Ying published a paper in 2000 discussing the growth rate of civil aviation traffic volume and the growth rate of the gross domestic product (hereinafter referred to as GDP)