一、导言过去20多年里,已有大量的金融学文献关注了金融市场中“过度波动”这一概念。本文旨在评估实际股价是否比潜在的理论股价波动更厉害,进而评估股市是否有效。这里需要一个通常由现值关系导出的资产定价模型(或理性估价公式,RVF),以及一个均衡期望收益模型。第一代检验是 I. INTRODUCTION In the past two decades and more, a large number of financial literature has focused on the concept of “excessive volatility” in financial markets. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether the actual stock price is more volatile than the underlying theoretical stock price and to assess the stock market’s effectiveness. Here you need an asset pricing model (or rational valuation formula, RVF) that is usually derived from the present value relationship, and a balanced expected return model. The first generation test is