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目的通过对某医院住院人次进行短期预测,为医院管理提供科学依据。方法采用趋势季节模型对2009年-2013年某医院住院人次进行建模,计算趋势方程,通过季节指数校正系数,得出各季度平均季节指数,对2014年各季度住院人次进行预测。结果以各年季平均住院人次建立直线回归方程y_c=4753.625+157.125t。季节指数的校正系数为1.0011,各季度平均季节指数分别为88.50%、105.19%、106.28%、100.03%。住院人次预测值为22 785,实际住院22 228人次,各季度住院依次为4590人次、5695人次、6109人次、5834人次,预测值与实际值相对误差分别为9.83%、5.22%、0.9%、2.33%,均小于10.00%。结论本模型预测效果较好,所预测数据能作为医院管理的参考依据。
Objective To provide a scientific basis for hospital management through short-term prediction of inpatients in a hospital. Methods The trend season model was used to model the inpatients in a hospital from 2009 to 2013. The trend equation was calculated and the seasonal index correction coefficient was used to calculate the average seasonal index of each quarter. The hospitalized population in each quarter of 2014 was predicted. Results The average linear regression equation of each season was established with y_c = 4753.625 + 157.125t. The season index correction coefficient is 1.0011, and the average seasonal index of each season is 88.50%, 105.19%, 106.28% and 100.03% respectively. The estimated in-hospital visits were 22,785 and the actual hospitalizations were 22,228. The hospitalizations were 4590, 5695, 6109 and 5834 in each quarter, with relative errors of 9.83%, 5.22%, 0.9% and 2.33, respectively %, Both less than 10.00%. Conclusion The model predicts better effect and the predicted data can be used as reference for hospital management.