2008年爆发的次贷危机引起世人广泛关注,表面上看是由于美国因房贷违约而引起的金融危机,本质上则是金融秩序与金融发展,金融监管不到位而造成的。然而,不只是美国存在着银行经营者与银行监管方面的缺失,我国的商业银行在经济进步和企业发展的过程中积累了巨额不良贷款,对实体经济的运行造成了很大的冲击。虽然政府采取了诸多措施来缓解这种现象,但商业银行因为管理制度不健全和信用风险管理能力薄弱等原因依然面临着企业贷款违约的现象。随着金融经济全球化的程度不断加深和金融市场的不稳定性,各国的投资机构和商业银行的信用风险遭到了前所未有的挑战和激化,我国贷款企业违约风险测度问题仍然是商业银行信用风险管理研究的重点。同时由于我国商业银行开发的违约率测度模型尚有不完善之处,所以我国贷款企业违约率测度问题仍值得进一步深化和研究。商业银行贷款发放和贷后控制的重要依据就是贷款企业的违约率测度,因而对它进行深一步的研究具有重要意义。本论文是以贷款企业违约的原因为出发点,先研究企业的内部违约起因及问题,然后向外拓展到企业的外部经济环境,。从而使商业银行更准确的认识贷款企业违约的特征,为商业银行以后发放贷款提供决策依据和支持。 The subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in 2008 aroused widespread concern around the world. On the surface, it was due to the financial crisis caused by the default of mortgage loans in the United States, which was caused by the financial order and financial development and the lack of financial supervision. However, not only is there a shortage of bank operators and bank supervision in the United States, but also a huge amount of non-performing loans accumulated by commercial banks in our country during the course of economic progress and enterprise development, which has caused a great impact on the operation of the real economy. Although the government has taken many measures to alleviate this phenomenon, commercial banks still face the default of corporate loans due to the imperfect management system and weak credit risk management capabilities. With the deepening of the globalization of financial economy and the instability of financial markets, the credit risk of investment institutions and commercial banks in various countries has been hitherto unprecedentedly challenged and intensified. The problem of the default risk measurement of Chinese loan enterprises is still the credit risk management of commercial banks The focus of the research. At the same time, as the default rate model developed by commercial banks in our country still has some imperfections, the problem of the default rate of loan enterprises in our country still deserves to be further deepened and studied. The important basis for commercial banks’ loan disbursement and post-loan control is the measure of the default rate of the lending enterprise, so it is of great significance to study it further. This thesis is based on the reason of default of loan enterprises as a starting point, first of all to study the causes and problems of internal default of enterprises, and then expand to the external economic environment of enterprises. So that commercial banks can more accurately understand the characteristics of loan defaults and provide decision-making basis and support for commercial banks to issue loans later.