8 Technology Trends to Watch in the COVID-19 Pandemic 新冠疫情中的八大科技趋势

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  During the COVID-19 pandemic, technologies are playing a crucial role in keeping our society functional in a time of lockdowns and quarantines. And these technologies may have a long-lasting impact beyond COVID-19.
  1. Online shopping and robot deliveries
   In late 2002, the SARS outbreak led to a tremendous growth of both business-to-business and business-to-consumer online marketplace platforms in China.
  Similarly, COVID-19 has transformed online shopping from a nice-to-have to a must-have around the world. Some bars in Beijing have even continued to offer happy hours1 through online orders and delivery.
   Online shopping needs to be supported by a robust logistics system. In-person delivery is not virus-proof. Many delivery companies and restaurants in the US and China are launching contactless delivery services where goods are picked up and dropped off at a designated location instead of from or into the hands of a person. Chinese e-commerce giants are also ramping up2 their development of robot deliveries. However, before robot delivery services become prevalent, delivery companies need to establish clear protocols to safeguard the sanitary condition of delivered goods.
  2. Digital and contactless payments
   Cash might carry the virus, so central banks in China, US and South Korea have implemented various measures to ensure banknotes are clean before they go into circulation. Now, contactless digital payments, either in the form of cards or e-wallets, are the recommended payment method to avoid the spread of COVID-19. Digital payments enable people to make online purchases and payments of goods, services and even utility payments3, as well as to receive stimulus funds4 faster.
   However, according to the World Bank, there are more than 1.7 billion unbanked people, who may not have easy access to digital payments. The availability of digital payments also relies on internet availability, devices and a network to convert cash into a digitalized format.
  3. Remote work
   Many companies have asked employees to work from home. Remote work is enabled by technologies including virtual private networks5 (VPNs), voice over internet protocols6 (VoIPs), virtual meetings, cloud technology, work collaboration tools and even facial recognition technologies that enable a person to appear before a virtual background to preserve the privacy of the home. In addition to preventing the spread of viruses, remote work also saves commute time and provides more flexibility.    Yet remote work also imposes challenges to employers and employees. Information security, privacy and timely tech support can be big issues. Remote work can also complicate labour law issues, such as those associated with providing a safe work environment and income tax issues. Employees may experience loneliness and lack of work-life balance. If remote work becomes more common after the COVID-19 pandemic, employers may decide to reduce lease costs and hire people from regions with cheaper labour costs.
   Laws and regulations must be updated to accommodate remote work—and further psychological studies need to be conducted to understand the effect of remote work on people.
   Further, not all jobs can be done from home, which creates disparity. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, about 25% of wage and salary workers7 worked from home at least occasionally from 2017 to 2018. Workers with college educations are at least five times more likely to have jobs that allow them to work from home compared with people with high school diplomas. Some professions, such as medical services and manufacturing, may not have the option at all. Policies with respect to data flows and taxation would need to be adjusted should the volume of cross-border digital services rise significantly.
  4. Distance learning
   As of mid-April, 191 countries announced or implemented school or university closures, impacting 1.57 billion students. Many educational institutions started offering courses online to ensure education was not disrupted by quarantine measures. Technologies involved in distant learning are similar to those for remote work and also include virtual reality8, augmented reality9, 3D printing and artificial-intelligence-enabled robot teachers.
   Concerns about distance learning include the possibility the technologies could create a wider divide in terms of digital readiness10 and income level. Distance learning could also create economic pressure on parents—more often women—who need to stay home to watch their children and may face decreased productivity at work.
  5. Telehealth
   Telehealth can be an effective way to contain the spread of COVID-19 while still providing essential primary care. Wearable personal IoT11 devices can track vital signs. Chatbots can make initial diagnoses based on symptoms identified by patients.
   However, in countries where medical costs are high, it’s important to ensure telehealth will be covered by insurance. Telehealth also requires a certain level of tech literacy to operate, as well as a good internet connection. And as medical services are one of the most heavily regulated businesses, doctors typically can only provide medical care to patients who live in the same jurisdiction12. Regulations, at the time they were written, may not have envisioned a world where telehealth would be available.   6. Online entertainment
   Although quarantine measures have reduced in-person interactions significantly, human creativity has brought the party online. Cloud raves and online streaming of concerts have gain traction around the world. Chinese film production companies also released films online. Museums and international heritage sites offer virtual tours13. There has also been a surge of online gaming traffic since the outbreak.
  7. Supply Chain 4.0
   The COVID-19 pandemic has created disruptions to the global supply chain. With distancing and quarantine orders, some factories are completely shut down. Some countries have implemented different levels of export bans on food and personal protective equipment. Heavy reliance on paper-based records, a lack of visibility on data and lack of diversity and flexibility have made existing supply chain system vulnerable to any pandemic.
   Core technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as Big Data, cloud computing, Internet-of-Things (“IoT”) and blockchain are building a more resilient supply chain management system for the future by enhancing the accuracy of data and encouraging data sharing.
  8. Robotics and drones
   COVID-19 makes the world realize how heavily we rely on human interactions to make things work. Labor intensive businesses, such as retail, food, manufacturing and logistics are the worst hit.
   COVID-19 provided a strong push to rollout the usage of robots and research on robotics. In recent weeks, robots have been used to disinfect areas and to deliver food to those in quarantine. Drones have walked dogs and delivered items.
  The importance of digital readiness
   COVID-19 has demonstrated the importance of digital readiness, which allows business and life to continue as usual—as much as possible—during pandemics. Building the necessary infrastructure to support a digitized world and stay current in the latest technology will be essential for any business or country to remain competitive in a post-COVID-19 world.                                          ■
  在2019冠狀病毒病大流行期间,为了维持我们的社会在封锁和隔离期的正常运作,各种技术正扮演着至关重要的角色。而这些技术带来的长期影响可能会延续到疫情结束之后。
  1. 线上购物与机器人配送
  2002年年底,非典疫情的暴发使中国涌现了一大批商家对商家、商家对顾客的线上市场平台。
  类似地,新冠疫情在全球范围内把线上购物从“有也不错”变成了“必备不可”。北京的一些酒吧甚至通过线上订单和配送继续给顾客提供打折优惠。
  线上购物需要强大的物流系统来支撑。因为人力配送不能防止病毒传播,美国和中国的多家快递公司和餐饮店推出了无接触派送服务,货物不再经人手传递,而是在特定的地点收取和投放。中国各大电商巨头也在大力发展机器人派送技术。然而,在机器人派送服务流行起来以前,快递公司需要制订出清晰的操作规程以保证派送货物的卫生条件。   2. 非接触式电子付款
  鉴于钞票也可能携带病毒,中国、美国和韩国的中央银行都采取了各种措施确保纸币进入市场流通之前洁净卫生。如今为了避免新冠病毒的传播,非接触式电子付款成为了推荐的付款方式:要么用银行卡,要么用电子钱包。人们能够通过电子支付进行线上购物、支付货款及服务费乃至进行公用事业缴费,还能更快获得经济刺激政策补助。
  然而据世界银行报告,目前有超过17亿人没有银行账户,对这些人而言,电子付款恐怕不是一件易事。电子付款的可用性还依赖于互联网的可用性和设备,还需一个将现金数字化的网络。
  3. 远程办公
  许多公司都要求员工在家办公。远程办公靠多种技术实现,包括虚拟专用网络(VPN)、互联网协议电话(VoIP)、虚拟会议、云技术、协作办公的工具乃至面部识别技术(让人出现在一个虚拟背景前,从而保护家庭隐私)。除了预防病毒传播,远程办公还节省了通勤时间,使办公更具弹性。
  然而远程办公也给雇主和雇员带来了挑战。信息安全、隐私和及时的技术支持都可能成为大问题。远程办公还会使劳动法问题变得更为复杂,比如与提供安全工作环境和所得税相关的问题。雇员可能会觉得孤独、难以平衡工作与生活。如果远程办公在2019冠状病毒病大流行后变得更加普遍,雇主可能会决定节省租金并从劳动力成本更低的地区招人。
  必须更新法律法规以便适应远程办公;同时要开展更多的心理学研究,以便理解远程办公对人们的影响。
  再者,不是所有的工作都可以在家完成,而这就产生了不平等。根据美国劳工统计局的调查, 2017年至2018年间约有25%的雇用劳动者至少偶尔在家工作。受过大学教育的劳动者被允许在家办公的机会是高中学历劳动者的至少5倍。有些职业,比如医疗服务和制造业,可能根本没法选择在家办公。如果跨境数字化服务的体量真要大增,与数据流和税收相关的政策就需要调整了。
  4. 远程学习
  截至今年4月中旬,191个国家宣布或者实施了中小学或大学停课的措施,15.7亿学生受到影响。为了确保教育不被隔离所打断,许多教育机构开始提供线上课程。远程学习用到的技术和远程办公类似,包括虚拟现实、增强现实、3D打印以及搭载人工智能的机器人教师。
  远程学习引发的担忧包括技术可能拉大人们在数字化准备度和收入水平方面的差距。远程学习还可能会给父母带来经济压力——通常是母亲,因为她们需要留在家里照看孩子,工作效率可能下降。
  5. 远程医疗
  远程医疗可以有效地控制疫情,同时继续提供必要的基层医疗。个人可穿戴联网设备能够监测生命体征。聊天机器人可以根据患者确认的症状做出初步诊断。
  然而,在医疗费用高昂的国家,确保将远程医疗纳入医保范围非常重要。实现远程医疗还要求相关人员懂一点技术操作,同时还要有良好的网络连接。而且,医疗服务业作为管制最为严格的行业之一,医生通常只能给居住在同一个司法辖区的病人提供医疗护理。当初制定法规的时候,人们或许预想不到一个可实现远程医疗的世界。
  6. 线上娱乐
  虽然隔离措施极大地减少了面对面交流,但人们发挥创造力,将欢聚地点移到了线上。云狂欢和线上直播音乐会在全球受到更多关注。中国的电影制作公司也纷纷在线上映影片。博物馆和列为世界文化遗产的景点开始提供虚拟游览服务。自疫情暴发以来,线上游戏流量也大涨。
  7. 供应链4.0
  2019冠状病毒病大流行打断了全球供应链。保持社交距离和进行隔离的命令一经颁布,一些工厂便完全关闭。部分国家对食品和个人防护用品实施了不同程度的出口限制。严重依赖纸质记录、缺乏数据的可视性、缺乏多样性和灵活性,这些问题使现有的供应链系统在任何大流行病面前都显得不堪一击。
  第四次工业革命的核心科技,比如大數据、云计算、物联网和区块链,都在通过增强数据准确性和鼓励数据共享,为未来建立一个更灵活的供应链管理系统。
  8. 机器人与无人机
  新冠疫情让世界认识到我们有多么依赖人际交流来办事。受疫情冲击最严重的是零售、食品、制造和物流这样的劳动密集型企业。
  疫情强力推动了机器人的应用和研究。最近几周,机器人被用于各种场所的消毒以及为隔离人员派送食物。无人机则负责遛狗和派送物件。
  数字化准备度的重要性
  这场疫情已经证明了数字化准备度的重要性——它使得工作和生活能在疫情期间尽可能地维持原状。任何一个企业或者国家想要在后疫情时代保持竞争力,建造必要的基础设施以支撑数字化世界、紧跟最新技术潮流将至关重要。      □
  (译者为“《英语世界》杯”翻译大赛获奖者)
  2 ramping up使……快速进展,大力推进。  3 utility payments由企事业单位收取的供居民使用的公共事业费用,包括通信、电力、供暖等。  4 stimulus funds政府或者企业为了刺激经济活力,给符合特定要求的企业或项目发放的鼓励性资金。
  5虚拟专用网络,是指在公用网络架设私人网络进行加密通信,属于远程访问技术的一种。  6互联网协议电话,是一种语音通话技术,经由国际协议(IP)来达成语音通话和多媒体会议。
  7 wage and salary workers雇佣劳动者的统称。wage worker多指简单或体力劳动者,报酬按周、日等短期结算;salary worker多指非体力劳动者,报酬按月、季甚至年结算。  8 virtual reality虚拟现实,利用计算机模拟虚拟环境从而给人以环境沉浸感,是集计算机、电子信息和仿真技术于一体的全新应用技术。
  9 augmented reality增强现实,综合应用多媒体、三维建模、实时跟踪、智能交互和传感等多种技术,把计算机生成的文字、图像、三维模型、音乐、视频等虚拟信息模拟仿真后应用到真实世界,两种信息互为补充,实现对现实世界的“增强”。  10 digital readiness数字化准备度,表示个人、集体甚至国家对于数字化的适应程度,包括数字化设备的可及性、数字化技术或平台的普及度、个体的数字化素养等多个方面的综合评价。  11全称Internet of Things,即物联网或者万物互联,是互联网基础上的延伸和扩展的网络,将各种信息传感设备和互联网结合起来形成一个巨大的网络,实现任何时间地点的人、机、物互联互通。
  12 jurisdiction司法辖区,即法律所规定的管辖区域。  13 virtual tour虚拟旅游,是指利用虚拟现实技术,通过模拟或者超现实景观,构建一个虚拟的三维立体旅游环境。
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