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分析了西班牙过去二十年间决定小汽车保有量增长的因素。在1980年、1990年和2000年三个年份建立了离散选择模型。对用于建立小汽车保有量模型的两种可选决策机制-有序反应和无序反应机制进行了比较,得出的结论是,从预测的效果来看,多项logit模型和有序probit模型几乎很难区分。实证结果显示收入弹性不是恒定的,随着小汽车保有水平的增长而衰减。此外,农村家庭比城市家庭对收入的敏感度小。在大城市,小汽车保有水平对公共交通质量也较敏感。研究结论也证实了年代效应的存在,并将于2020年左右消逝,生命周期的微弱效应、以及就业对每个家庭小汽车保有量的积极影响。最后,估算系数的变化反映了迁移的需求,从而导致了小汽车保有量的增长。该研究还量化了各个影响因素对小汽车保有量增长的相对重要性。
Analyzed the factors that Spain has decided to increase car ownership over the past two decades. In 1980, 1990 and 2000 three years to establish a discrete choice model. Comparing the two alternative decision-making mechanisms used to establish the car ownership model, the orderly and disorderly response mechanisms, the conclusion is drawn that the multiple logit models and ordered probit The model is almost impossible to distinguish. Empirical results show that income elasticity is not constant, declining with the growth of car ownership. In addition, rural households have less sensitivity to income than urban households. In big cities, car ownership is also sensitive to the quality of public transport. The conclusions of the study also confirm the existence of the chronology and will pass away around 2020 with the weak effect of the life cycle and the positive impact of employment on car ownership per family. Finally, the changes in the estimated coefficients reflect the need for relocation, resulting in an increase in car ownership. The study also quantified the relative importance of each of these factors to the growth of car ownership.