八月份，中国宏观经济延续了七月份强劲增长的势头。汽车工业及交通设备制造业跃居各行业之首，成为工业增长新的领头羊。外贸出口和引进外资快速增长，固定资产投资增速不减，消费较前有所活跃，物价跌势趋缓，环比指数略有回升。然而，与实体经济向好的态势相比，金融体系的低效率依旧，成为当前经济运行的瓶颈，金融改革不仅任重道远，而且时不我待。
　　8月份，全国工业企业完成增加值2634亿元，同比增长12.7%，增速与上月基本持平。全国汽车产销总量分别比上年同期增长35.23%和38.96%，当月共生产24.39万辆，其中，轿车产量9.74万辆，创历史新高，同比增长51%，载货车增幅也在50%左右。
　　由于汽车工业的高速发展，使交通运输设备制造行业对工业增长的拉动作用首次超过电子通信设备制造行业，跃升工业40个行业大类之首，其对工业增长的贡献率为14.4%；电子通信设备制造业的贡献率为14.2%。钢和成品钢材同比增长25.4%和22.1%，是今年以来月度最高增速之一，对工业增长的贡献率由上月的4.9%上升为本月的5.9%。
　　8月份全国工业产品销售率为98.3%，比上年同月提高0.61个百分点;实现社会消费品零售总额3144亿元，同比增长8.8%，比前7个月加快0.2个百分点;电子通讯工具、家用电器以及汽车市场持续活跃，销售增长均为今年的高峰;全国居民消费价格总水平环比上涨0.3%，而同比下降0.7%。
　　1-8月份，国有及其他经济类型完成固定资产投资16535亿元，同比增长24.2%，高于上年同期5.3个百分点。其中，商品住宅投资增速回落1.2个百分点，但商品房销售速度继续加快，1-8月商品房销售额2157亿元，同比增长25.3%，比前七个月增速提高2.9个百分点。
　　8月份我国外贸进出口总值566亿美元，同比增长24％。其中出口294亿美元，增长25％；进口272亿美元，增长23％。当月实现贸易顺差22亿美元。
　　８月份，全国共批准外商投资企业2944个，合同外资79.53亿美元，实际使用外资49.01亿美元。１至８月，全国新批外商投资企业21470家，同比增长31.36％，合同外资金额623.07亿美元，同比增长42.42％，实际使用外资金额344.42亿美元，同比增长25.52％。外商独资企业占新批外商投资企业总数的65.3%，比上年同期提高了6.3个百分点，中国加入世界贸易组织后，外商对华直接投资的方式越来越多地以独资企业的形式进行。


　　8月末，M2、M1、M0余额分别为17.3、6.5和1.57万亿元，分别比上年同期增长15.5%、14.6%、9.3%。货币流动性(M1/M2)为37.4%，比上月提高0.2个百分点，维持5月份以来稳步上升的态势。全部金融机构各项存款余额为16.2万亿元，增长17.8％，增幅比上年同期高1.7个百分点。全部金融机构各项贷款余额为12.3万亿元，增长13.3%，是自去年下半年以来增幅最高的月份。当月金融机构各项贷款增加1736亿元，同比多贷1226亿元。尽管如此，存差仍在进一步扩大。中央银行基础货币余额为4万亿元，同比增长14.8%，维持较高的速度。人民币汇率为1美元兑8.2767元人民币，继续保持稳定。
　　融资期限进一步向短期集中，拆借市场上隔夜品种的交易量比7月份大涨62.01%。在央行当月连续三次28天正回购公开市场操作的引导下，20天和30天品种的交易量分别上涨了381.22%和262.16%。8月份20天以内的短期品种成交量达73682亿元，占拆借交易总成交量的94.16%。此外，银行间债券回购市场上短期融资的特征更为明显。80%的交易集中在7天之内。在公开市场操作的期限引导下，21天和1个月期限品种的成交量大涨45.16%和85.89%。
　　八月份，实体经济运行的亮点继续扩大，工业生产、外贸出口、引进外资以及固定资产投资延续了上个月高速增长的态势，今年以来一直表现暗淡的消费及物价指数也出现微弱回升之势。但总体说来，市场供求形势并未根本变化，消费增长也没有明显起色，物价下跌的趋势仍在延续。
　　尽管中国工业增长迅速，但最新的研究表明，我国企业的竞争力远没有想象的那么强大。中国企业联合会、中国企业家协会8月29日发布了《中国企业发展报告（2002）》，推出了中国企业500强，揭示了与世界500强的差距。国家经贸委也在近期发布了《中国经济“脊梁”有多坚挺》的研究报告，从另一个角度对比了我国重点企业与世界500强的差距。总的说来，2001年中国企业500强及重点企业在营业收入、资产和利润的成长性指标上好于世界500强，比如，中国企业500强平均利润增长了4.29%，而世界企业500强平均利润却下降了47.5％。尽管部分企业发展势头良好，与世界500强差距在缩小，但整体实力与世界水平的差距依然巨大。
　　我国500强企业的差距主要有三：一是规模小，平均资产规模、营业收入、利润水平分别只有世界500强的6.46％、5.26％和12.06%，512家重点企业营业收入合计仅相当于世界500强前两名企业的营业收入之和；二是劳动生产率水平低，中国企业500强的平均人均营业收入、人均利润、人均资产，分别只有世界企业500强的的12.95%、29.62%和1.57%。三是创新能力差，我国多数大企业关键技术的开发和应用水平与国际先进水平有较大差距，研究开发费用投入少，创新机制亟待建立。
　　特别值得指出的是，近三年来，512家重点企业户数在全国工业中所占比重仅为0.3%，但营业收入、实现利润和资产总额所占比重一直稳定在40%、50%和60%左右，是名副其实的国民经济的“脊梁”，它们与世界水平的差距反映了我国整体经济实力的差距，但更大的差距也许不在统计指标上，而是在企业制度上。入选全球500强的11家中国企业是清一色“国”字头的企业，分别来自于银行、电力、电信、石化等几个垄断行业，大而不强。这些企业没有一家是全球化的跨国公司，而世界500强中已有400多家企业在中国投资。国有企业如何提高国际竞争力是急待解决的难题。
　　最近，深圳市准备拍卖五家国有企业的股权，美、日、法、港等13家企业有意竞投深圳能源集团25%的股权；上海也提出将部分基础设施让外资入股；北京市将试行拍卖中小国有企业股权。与此同时，种种迹象表明，国家正在通过各种渠道引导外商投资购并国有资产，购并将成为今后利用外资的主要形式。由国家经贸委草拟完成的《关于外资并购国有大中型企业暂行管理办法》正在报请国务院有关方面核准；人民银行制定草拟的《外商参股中资金融机构管理办法》也上报到国务院有关部门等待核准。配合前一阶段已经出台的各种与购并有关的法规，外资购并国有企业和上市公司有可能成为国企改革的一条重要途径。
　　在外资购并国有企业的同时，民间资本投资参股大型设施建设也有所突破，杭州湾大桥投资160亿元，民营资本唱主角，除宁波、嘉兴两市30亿资本金和50亿贷款外，其余来自民间资本；大连实德集团决定出资1.2亿元参与渤海铁路轮渡工程建设，中铁渤海轮渡公司原则上同意出让10%的股份。如果已经出台的鼓励民间投资的政策能够贯彻落实，那么，对于中国经济的发展将会产生持续的推动力。
　　继上个月中央银行发出《关于进一步加强对有市场、有效益、有信用中小企业信贷支持的指导意见》之后，央行监管课题组最近又发表了《进一步发挥现有中小商业银行的作用》的研究报告，通过发挥中小商业银行的作用支持中小企业信贷已经成为央行的既定政策和方针。从8月的贷款执行情况看，通过中小银行发放给中小企业的贷款明显增加。今年以来，国有独资银行存贷款增幅差为正值，表明国有独资银行整体资金净流入较多。而股份制银行、城市商业银行和农村信用社等均为负值，表明资金净流入较少。中小商业银行通常通过拆借回购市场从国有独资银行融进资金。这就表明，放开和发展中小金融机构，促进金融市场细分，是走出目前困境的重要途径。
　　8月中旬，民生银行宣布在全行范围内开展个人委托贷款业务，目前该行是唯一授权批准开展此项业务的商业银行。7月23日，杭州分行率先开展此项业务，在短短20天时间里，需求的规模已经达到2500万元。个人委托贷款业务原属于“地下钱庄”的生意，在市场经济发达的浙江地区，民间金融相当发达，地下钱庄已是公开的秘密。据杭州人行的调查，浙江地区由民间运作的资本有8300亿，地下钱庄运作了其中的大部分。民生银行此举无非是将地下钱庄的经营公开化和制度化。
　　事实上，开办个人委托贷款业务的最主要的意义在于承认民间金融的合法性，因为这种业务的主体是个人而不是银行，个人之间有权根据具体的业务情况确定贷款的期限、利率等条件，就是私人开办银行业务。由于银行业务实行垄断经营，民间自主协商的借贷行为不具有合法性，所以不得不以地下的形式存在。调查显示浙江地区的地下钱庄有30%-40%声誉卓著，有些是百年老字号。在温州和台州地区，地下钱庄对当地经济发展起到重要的作用。对广大正在创业的中小企业来说，它们往往无法取得有效的抵押和担保，按正规的银行渠道很难得到贷款，但个人之间的贷款就灵活多了，可以一事一议，灵活调整协议，制订个性化的监督手段，根据风险调整利率水平。在国有银行这种组织形式不容易达到的地方，开展这种表外业务，本身就说明市场是有多种形式和层次的，既然国有银行不能适应中小企业的贷款需求，就没有理由扼杀市场自发组织形式。政府的职责是将规则透明、公开，监管市场秩序。
　　下半年的货币政策连续进行了正回购操作，引起了各方面的议论和猜测。从6月25日到9月3日，央行通过连续正回购，累积收回资金1550亿元。从8月份M2、M1、M0的增长幅度看，货币供应总量还比较宽松，其主要原因在于外汇占款的不断增加，今年1-7月，外汇占款净增加3049.9亿元，同比增长19.4％，增幅远高于同期货币供应量的增长。可见，央行通过正回购的对冲性操作回笼部分货币是被迫的不得不采取的办法，它客观上影响了市场利率，拆借回购利率的回升与此直接相关。因此，央行很难兼顾货币供应量和利率两个目标。9月3日，央行公开市场业务同时进行了正反方向的操作。目前，债券市场从短期回购到30年期的国债，其利率在2%-3%的空间内运行，利差仅有一个百分点，长期利率曲线已经成为一条水平线。实际上压制了短期利率上升空间，拆借回购利率虽然回升，但上升空间有限。
　　外汇占款的不断增加引致了货币供应量的快速增长，但由于传导渠道不畅，又不能有效地转化为投资，这些资金不得不继续追逐有限的国债。导致利率的不断走低，央行虽然采取正回购措施，导致短期利率有所回升，长期利率依然很低，这种状况是由于市场资金供求造成的。在6月24日井喷行情发生时，债券市场的部分资金曾经部分流入股市，但股市终因投资价值差而不断回落，银行资金入市的问题又提了出来，发展企业债券的呼声也高涨起来。与此同时，资金滞留银行，银行的风险很大，日子也不好过，据说，现在全国银行业只有10个城市是盈利的。银行的资金不能滞留在银行，总得寻找出路，快速流动起来，否则，银行就很难生存，经济循环也难以持续。因此，金融创新和金融突破不仅任重道远，而且时不我待。
　　
　　Physical Economy Continues to Grow Financial Operations Not Satisfactory
　　---An Analysis of China‘s Macroeconomic Operations in August
　　By Zhang Shuguang.Director of the Beijing Tianze Institute of Economec Studies
　　Wang Xinbo,Jin Yanshi& Jin Sanlin, guest research fellows of the institute
　　
　　A strong growth that featured China‘s physical economy for the first seven months of 2002 continued into August. The motor industry spearheaded the growth. Meanwhile, efficiency of financial operations remained low relative to the growth of the physical economy. The financial sector continued to be the bottleneck of the Chinese economy.
　　Industrial enterprises across China yielded a total of 263.4 billion yuan (about 8.3 yuan against the U.S. dollar) in industrial added value, 12.7% over August 2001. Auto production and sales went up 35.23% and 38.96% over the same previous period respectively. The country produced 243,900 motor vehicles in the month. The figure included 97,400 cars, representing an all-time monthly record and a year-on-year increase of 51%. The increase was around 50% for production of freight vehicles.
　　Thanks to so rapid an increase in auto production, the transport equipment industry came to replace the electronics and telecom industry as the most powerful booster of the country‘s industrial growth. It was responsible for 14.4% of the industrial growth registered for August, compared with 14.2% by the electronics and telecom industry. Production of steel and steel products went up 25.4% and 22.1% over August 2001, respectively.
　　The August sales rate for industrial goods came to 98.3% for August 2002, which was 0.61 percentage points higher than the corresponding figure for July. The country‘s total retail sales of consumer goods were valued at 314.4 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year. The general price index for consumer goods went up 0.3% over the previous month, but it was 0.7% lower than that for the same month of 2001.
　　 Capital spending in the first eight months of 2002 came to a total of 1,653.5 billion yuan, up 24.2% over the same previous period. Housing sales amounted to 215.7 billion yuan, up 25.3%.
　　China‘s foreign trade was valued at US$56.6 billion for August, up 24% over the same previous month. The figure breaks down into US$29.7 billion for exports, up 25%, and US$27.2billion for imports, up 23%, with a trade surplus of US$2.2 billion.
　　In August, 2,944 foreign-funded enterprises won approval for operation in China, involving US$7.953 billion in contractual foreign investment. The same month saw foreign investments of US$4.901 billion that were actually utilized. In the January-August period, China approved a total of 21,407 foreign-funded enterprises, 31.36% more than in the corresponding period of 2001. These involved US$62.307 billion in contractual foreign investment, up 42.42% over the same previous period. Foreign investment totaling US$34.442 billion was actually committed in the first eight months of this year, up 25.52%. What merits special mention is the fact that enterprises under sole foreign proprietorship accounted for 65.3% of the total that won approval in the first eight months of this year for operation in China, up 6.3percentage points over the same previous period.
　　At the end of August, the balance of M2 (broad money supply) stood at 17.3 trillion yuan, up 15.5% over a year before; that of M1 (narrow money supply), at 6.5 trillion yuan, up 14.6%; and that of M0 (currency in circulation), at 1.57 trillion yuan, up 9.3%. Monetary fluidity (M1/M2) was computed at 37.4%, 0.2 percentage points over a month earlier. The balance of deposits at all financial institutions amounted to 16.2 trillion yuan, up 17.8%, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points higher than for the corresponding period of 2001. The balance of loans extended by all financial institutions came to 12.3 trillion yuan at the end of August, up 13.3% year-on-year, the highest monthly rise since the second half of last year. In spite of a faster growth in loans, the gap between loans and deposits widened. The balance of base money supplied by the central bank stood at 4 trillion yuan at the end of August, 14.8% over a year before, and the growth rate was still relatively high. The exchange rate of Renminbi remained stable in August, standing at 8.2767 yuan against the U.S. dollar.
　　 On the money market, short-term varieties were increasingly favored. Transactions of overnight variety in August surged 62.01% over the figure for July. Guided by the central bank‘s three consecutive 28-day positive repurchases in its open market operations, transactions of the 20-day and 30-day varieties shot up by 381.22% and 262.16% respectively in the month. Of total transactions on the money market in August, 94.16% derived from short-term varieties with a maturity of less than 20 days, amounting to 7,368.2 billion yuan. The trend of short-term financing was even more apparent on the bond repurchase market, in which 80% of total transactions in August derived from varieties with a maturity of less than seven days.
　　As we have mentioned, strong growths continued into August for China‘s physical economy, industrial production, exports, capital spending and foreign capital inflow. Meanwhile, consumption and price indices, which had been low in the first seven months of the year, picked up slightly. Despite that, no significant change was observed in the country‘s market supply and demand, and the trend of dropping prices was far from being reversed.
　　Despite a rapid industrial growth achieved over the years, Chinese companies remain weak in global competition. According to a study published by the Chinese Entrepreneurs‘ Association on August 29 and a recent report of the State Economic and Trade Commission, the top 500 Chinese companies‘ profitability increased by 4.29% in 2001, in contrast to a decrease of 4.75% in 2001 profitability for the world‘s top 500. Meanwhile, the reports note that the value of assets owned by China‘s top 500 was only 6.46% of that by the world‘s top 500. For business incomes, the corresponding figure was 5.26% and for profit margin, 12.05%. Key state-owned enterprises number 512, accounting for about 0.3% of all Chinese enterprises. Nevertheless, they have furnished 40% of the business revenues generated by all Chinese enterprises over the past three years and 50% of the industrial profits while accounting for 60% of the country‘s total industrial assets. They are big, indeed, by Chinese standards. But none of them are transnational corporations. All the 11 Chinese enterprises on the Fortune list of the world‘s top 500 are under state ownership, operating in a few industries under state monopoly including banking, power generation, telecom and petrochemical industries. We have to keep in mind that of the world‘s top 500, 400 are already operating in China. In other words, we have the urgent need to rapidly enhance the competitiveness of our own companies.
　　In a related development, Shenzhen City has decided to sell 25% of the stocks owned by the state-owned Shenzhen Energy Group through public bidding, and 13 companies based in the United States, Japan, France and China‘s Hong Kong Special Administrative Region have expressed the intention to participate in the bidding. Shanghai is going to allow foreign companies to own some stocks of the city‘s infrastructure facilities. Beijing, on its part, will sell some small- and medium-sized state-owned enterprises. Signs are indicating that the merger and acquisition of Chinese enterprises by foreign investors are being promoted as a major policy measure to lure in foreign capital and technologies.
　　Private capital is beginning to take a part in the construction of big infrastructure facilities. Half of the 16 billion yuan of investment money for the proposed Hangzhou Bay Bridge is expected to come from private sources. The Shide Group in Dalian, a private firm, plans to invest 120 million yuan in a railway ferry service on the Bohai Sea. Implementation of a government policy encouraging private capital to invest in infrastructure is expected to be a driving force for a sustained growth of the Chinese economy.
　　Last month, the central bank made public a circular titled Guiding Ideas on Further Strengthening Credit Support for Medium-sized and Small Enterprises. Providing credit support for medium-sized and small enterprises through medium-sized and small banks has become an established policy of the central bank. In August, loans extended to medium- and small enterprises increased markedly. Developing medium-sized and small banking institutions and broadening the scope of their services is an important way for the financial sector to extricate itself from its present difficulties. ■