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采用气候倾向率和M-K突变检验,分析1951~2012年江西省气候和温度的变化趋势和突变特征;构建“气候-经济”新模型,研究气候因子对水稻产量的影响,最后借助BP神经网络模型预测未来10a气候因子对水稻产量的贡献。结果表明:过去60多年来气温平均每10a升高0.172℃,而降水的线性倾向不显著;气温突变开始的时间约为1997年,降水的突变趋势不明显;不同阶段气候因素的贡献率及作用方向存在差异,1978~1997年气候因子贡献率为5.97%,其中温度和降水贡献率分别为1.51%、4.46%。1998~2013年气候因子贡献率为8.98%,温度和降水贡献率分别为4.63%、4.35%。物质要素在不同阶段的贡献率均为70%以上,其中播种面积和化肥的影响程度较大;未来10a气温对江西水稻产量的贡献为1.48,降水量对水稻产量的贡献为2.22。
Climate change and MK mutation test were used to analyze the trend and mutation characteristics of climate and temperature in Jiangxi from 1951 to 2012. A new model of “climate-economy” was constructed to study the effect of climatic factors on rice yield. Finally, The network model predicts the contribution of climatic factors to rice yield in the future. The results showed that over the past 60 years, the average temperature increased 0.172 ℃ every 10 years, but the linear trend of precipitation was not significant. The onset of temperature abrupt change was about 1997 and the trend of precipitation was not obvious. The contribution rate and effect of climatic factors There are differences in the directions. The contribution rate of climate factors from 1978 to 1997 was 5.97%, of which the contribution rates of temperature and precipitation were 1.51% and 4.46% respectively. The contribution rate of climatic factors from 1998 to 2013 was 8.98%, and the contribution rates of temperature and precipitation were 4.63% and 4.35% respectively. The contribution rate of material elements in different stages was more than 70%, of which the sown area and the influence of chemical fertilizers were large. The contribution of 10a temperature to Jiangxi rice production in the future was 1.48, and the contribution of precipitation to rice production was 2.22.