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论文基于2007—2010年中国30个省份区域间投入产出表数据,结合线性规划建立了多区域投入产出优化模型,研究了环境约束下中国八大经济区的出口结构优化。结果表明:2007—2010年需要提高服务业和农业的出口比重,同时降低煤炭开采和洗选业、造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业、金属冶炼及压延业和电力热力生产供应业的出口比重,通过以上结构调整达到最优出口结构,可以实现在不增加碳、工业二氧化硫和工业废水排放的基础上促使全国GDP分别提高6.84%和8.17%。东北区域、黄河中游区域、长江中游区域、大西南区域和大西北区域需要降低的出口部门较多,且多集中在高能耗高排放产业;东部沿海区域、南部沿海区域、北部沿海区域需要提高的出口部门较多,主要集中在制造业和服务业,2010年东部沿海区域、南部沿海区域和大西北区域的总体出口结构优化度比2007年有所提高。在八大经济区中,东部沿海区域和南部沿海区域由于区位优势,其出口结构整体优化度相对较高,而东北区域则最低。地理区位对于区域出口结构优化具有一定程度的影响。
Based on the input-output data of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2010, the paper establishes a multi-region input-output optimization model based on linear programming, and studies the export structure optimization of China’s eight major economic regions under environmental constraints. The results show that from 2007 to 2010, it is necessary to increase the proportion of exports of service industry and agriculture while reducing the export share of the coal mining and processing industry, paper and printing and cultural and educational sporting goods manufacturing industry, metal smelting and rolling industry and power generation and thermal power supply industry, Through the above structural adjustment to achieve the optimal export structure, we can achieve an increase of 6.84% and 8.17% of the national GDP on the basis of not increasing emissions of carbon, industrial sulfur dioxide and industrial wastewater. The northeast region, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the Greater Southwest and the Greater Northwest have more export sectors to be reduced, and most of them are concentrated in high-energy-consumption and high-emission industries. The eastern coastal areas, the southern coastal areas and the northern coastal areas need to be improved Export sectors are more concentrated in the manufacturing and service industries. In 2010, the overall export structure optimization in the eastern coastal areas, the southern coastal areas and the greater northwest areas increased compared with 2007. Among the eight economic zones, the overall optimization of the export structure is relatively high due to its geographical advantages in the eastern coastal area and the southern coastal area, while the lowest in the northeast area. Geographical location has a certain impact on the optimization of regional export structure.