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社保缴费率的变化会改变居民预期,从而影响居民的消费储蓄行为。基于一个世代交叠模型,分析调整社保缴费率对我国城镇居民消费储蓄行为的影响。研究表明:1)不论是提高现收现付制还是提高基金制下的缴费率都会降低家庭的储蓄意愿;2)提高现收现付制下的缴费率可同时扩大家庭在年轻和老年时的消费水平,但仅在个人养老金账户收益率高于市场利率时,提高基金制缴费率才会扩大家庭两期的消费;3)在缴费率给定的情况下,个人账户收益率与市场利率的差距越大,家庭的储蓄意愿就越小。因此,当前政府在加快完善我国社会保障制度的同时,应提高对个人养老金账户资金的管理水平,优化投资组合,拓宽养老保险基金的投资渠道,提高养老金账户的收益率。
Changes in social security contribution rates will change residents ’expectations, thus affecting residents’ consumption and savings behavior. Based on a one-generation overlapping model, the impact of social security contribution rate on China’s urban residents’ consumption and saving behavior is analyzed. The research shows that: 1) both the pay-as-you-go system and the contribution rate under the fund system will reduce the family’s willingness to save; 2) raising the pay-out rate under the pay-as-you-go system can simultaneously increase the family’s contribution rate in young and old age Consumption level, but only when the individual pension account rate of return is higher than the market rate, raising the fund contribution rate will increase the consumption of the two households in the family; 3) In the case of the contribution rate, the personal account return rate and the market interest rate The larger the gap, the smaller the family’s willingness to save. Therefore, while accelerating the improvement of China’s social security system, the current government should raise the level of management over individual pension funds, optimize their investment portfolios, broaden the investment channels for pension funds and raise the rate of return on pension funds.