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1991年3月17日全苏公投仍有高达76%民众支持保留共同国家。但不到9个月之后,别洛韦日森林声明即宣布苏联终止存在。假如在公投举行以后,不是采取建立主权国家联盟的方针,而是循序渐进地建立一个“软”联邦,一开始仅限于建议签订建立共同经济空间的协议,分离主义者的目的就不会达到。“8·19”事件更多是起了雷管的作用。先前的发展方式挖了苏联的墙角。导致苏联垮台的深层次经济原因体现在行政管理体系的结构性危机上。而由国家结构中长期缺乏联邦制引发的中央与各加盟共和国关系的危机,是苏联解体的另一个最重要的原因。保留苏共作为确保苏联统一的机制,其必要条件是党本身的民主化。制约苏共民主化的主要力量是党的机关,它实际上处于选举出来的党的机构之上。在帮助苏联走出经济困境方面,西方甚至“连手指头都没有动一下”。而困难至极的经济形势在很大程度上注定了苏联的解体。
On March 17, 1991, as many as 76% of the people in the referendums in the entire Soviet Union still support the retention of common countries. But less than nine months later, the Belo Horizonte Forest declared that the Soviet Union would cease to exist. If instead of adopting the principle of establishing a coalition of sovereign nations, instead of gradually establishing a “soft” federal union after the referendum was held, initially the agreement on establishing a common economic space would only be signed and the separatist’s purpose would not be achieved . The “August 19” incident is more of a detonator’s role. The previous way of development dug Soviet walls. The deep-seated economic reasons that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union are reflected in the structural crisis of the administrative system. The crisis of the relations between the Central Government and the republics caused by the chronic lack of federalism in the national structure is another most important reason for the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The preservation of the Soviet Communist Party as a mechanism for ensuring the unification of the Soviet Union requires the democratization of the party itself. The main force that restricts the democratization of the CPSU is the organ of the party, which is actually above the elected party body. In helping the Soviet Union get out of economic difficulties, the West even “did not even move its fingers.” The extremely difficult economic situation has, to a large degree, confounded the dissolution of the Soviet Union.