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利用新疆天山北坡经济带1978-2008年18个县市的人均GDP数据为基础,以县市为基本单元,采用ESDA全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关分析方法与GIS技术结合,对天山北坡经济带的经济空间关联类型、动态演化特征及动力机制进行研究。结果表明:1)30年来天北经济带经济全局空间自相关系数总体呈现空间正相关特征,且表现出一种稳定的状态。2)局部区域空间自相关特征显著,根据Local Moran’s I所表征的空间意义分类,将各县市的经济发展分为集聚区(高-高)、萧条区(低-低)、空心区(低-高)和孤岛区(高-低),并结合区域面积变化,分析了天山北坡经济带区域经济集聚及演化过程特点。3)区域经济增长的近邻效应不是很明显,低-低和高-高两种类型区域面积有所减少。4)石油资源和交通条件是促进天北经济带区域经济空间集聚与演化的动力。文章最后探讨了天北经济带经济空间关联特点及演化特征对区域经济集聚扩散过程、区域政策选择、空间开发模式等问题的影响。
Based on the per capita GDP data of 18 counties and cities in 1978-2008 in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, ESDA global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation analysis are combined with GIS technology to take counties and cities as the basic unit. The economic spatial correlation type, dynamic evolution characteristics and dynamic mechanism of the slope economic belt are studied. The results show that: 1) The overall global spatial autocorrelation coefficient of economic zone in North Tibetian has a positive spatial correlation in the past 30 years and shows a stable state. (2) The spatial autocorrelation of local area is significant. According to the classification of the spatial meaning represented by Local Moran’s I, the economic development of each county is divided into agglomeration area (high-high), depression area (low-low), hollow area - high) and island areas (high - low). Combined with the changes of the area, the characteristics of regional economic agglomeration and evolution in the economic belt on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains were analyzed. 3) The neighbor effect of regional economic growth is not obvious, and the area of low-low and high-high areas is reduced. 4) Petroleum resources and traffic conditions are the driving forces for promoting the gathering and evolution of the economic space in the north of Tianbei Economic Zone. At the end of this article, we discuss the influence of the characteristics and evolution characteristics of economic spatial correlation in the economic zone on the process of regional economic agglomeration and diffusion, regional policy choice and spatial development mode.