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利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心“中国城市青年状况调查”数据,使用多项式Logistic回归分析方法,对城市青年的地域通婚圈作了研究。人口迁移流动经历对城市未婚青年意愿通婚圈和初婚青年现实通婚圈的扩大都具有明显的促进作用。城市独生子女的通婚圈明显比非独生子女小,但通婚圈不会因兄弟姐妹数量的增加而扩大。从通婚圈角度看,“二孩生育”政策应该成为我国生育政策的最终归宿。
Based on the Population and Development Research Center of Renmin University of China and the “Survey of Urban Youth in China”, the paper uses the polynomial Logistic regression analysis method to study the regional marriage circle of urban youth. The migration experience of migrants has obviously promoted the expansion of the marriage circle of the urban unwed youth and the expansion of the marriage circle of the first marriage youth. Marriage of only-child urban children is significantly smaller than that of non-only children, but the marriage circle does not expand as the number of siblings increases. From the perspective of the marriage circle, the policy of “second child birth” should become the ultimate destination of our country’s fertility policy.