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基于全球气候变化背景下水环境和水资源响应的不确定性,针对我国西南边境地区复杂自然环境和国际关系对我国水资源安全和国际河流水资源开发利用的影响和潜在风险,探索了西南边境接壤4国与我国发生水资源争端的潜在风险,并引入“云模型”研究思想对其中定性的人文环境风险因素予以了量化表达和客观评估,旨在为我国西南边境水资源开发利用规划和边境冲突危机处置提供决策咨询。
Based on the uncertainty of water environment and water resources response to global climate change, aiming at the influence and potential risks of complex natural environment and international relations on water resources security and development and utilization of international river water resources in China’s southwest border area, 4 country and our country, and introduce the research thought of “cloud model ” to quantify and objectively evaluate the qualitative factors of human environment risk, which is aimed at the planning of water resources development and utilization in the southwestern border of our country Border Crisis Crisis Management provides policy advice.