体育比赛的竞争日益激烈，其影响和意义也日趋扩大。科学选拔和训练运动员是取得优异成绩的重要一环。运动员成绩的预测又是科学选拔和训练运动员的有力手段。通过预测成绩和实际成绩的比较，就可以判断出该运动员是否可以被选拔，或者此种训练方法是否有效、合理。本文以径赛为例，用指数函数作为拟合曲线，建立数学模型，预测运动员的成绩，以帮助教练员科学地训练和选拔人才 The competition of sports competitions is increasingly fierce, and their influence and significance are also expanding day by day. Scientific selection and training of athletes is an important part of achieving outstanding results. Prediction of athlete’s performance is also a powerful means of scientifically selecting and training athletes. By comparing the predicted result with the actual result, one can judge whether the athlete can be selected or whether the training method is effective and reasonable. In this paper, taking track and field race as an example, the exponential function is used as the fitting curve to establish the mathematical model to predict the athlete’s performance so as to help the trainer scientifically train and select talents