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经验事实表明,以纯粹技术分析为基础的新古典宏观模型难以解释现实的经济运行。本文构建了一个同时考虑流量与存量的货币经济宏观模型,并尝试用该模型来分析我国的有效需求不足引发的经济波动现象。实证分析,结果表明:目前我国的有效需求不足问题仅仅强调消费是不够的,只有从企业成本收益出发,分析作为市场供给方(企业)的成本结构随投资流量的变化情况,以及随之出现的有效需求问题,才能解释我国的经济波动现象。
Empirical facts show that the neoclassical macroeconomic model based on purely technical analysis can hardly explain the real economy. This paper constructs a macroeconomic model of the monetary economy that considers both flow and stock, and tries to use the model to analyze the economic fluctuations caused by the insufficient effective demand in our country. Empirical analysis shows that at present, the problem of insufficient effective demand in our country only emphasizes that consumption is not enough. Only from the cost-benefit of the firm, we can analyze the change of the cost structure as the market supply-side (firm) with the investment flow, Effective demand, can we explain the phenomenon of economic fluctuations in our country.