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以东北老工业基地2006—2012年18个地级城市37个工业行业总产值和能源消耗等数据为基础,利用LMDI四因素分解模型对其工业行业碳排放量变化的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,东北老工业基地工业行业碳排放总量整体上仍显上升趋势,但行业总值碳排放强度呈明显的下降趋势,能源强度呈现下降趋势,在工业能源消费中还是以煤炭消费为主。东北老工业基地工业行业规模增加是老工业基地工业企业碳排放增加的拉动因素,行业结构和行业能源强度由初期的拉动因素转为后期的抑制因素,行业能源结构是工业企业碳排放增加的拉动因素。
Based on the data of the total output value and energy consumption of 37 industrial industries in 18 prefecture-level cities in northeastern old industrial base from 2006 to 2012, the influencing factors of carbon emissions in industrial sectors were analyzed by using the four-factor decomposition model of LMDI. The results show that the total carbon emissions of the industrial sector in the northeast old industrial base still show an upward trend as a whole, but the carbon intensity of the total industrial output shows a declining trend and the energy intensity shows a downward trend. In the industrial energy consumption, the total amount of carbon emissions is still dominated by coal consumption . The increase of industrial scale in the northeast old industrial base is the driving factor for the increase of carbon emissions of industrial enterprises in the old industrial bases. The industrial structure and energy intensity of the industry shifted from the early-stage pull-in factor to the later-stage inhibitory factor. The industrial energy mix is the impetus for the increase of industrial enterprises’ carbon emissions factor.