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21世纪,中国西南地区干旱灾害农业综合损失率远超过全国平均水平,给人类生活带来了巨大的风险。本文依据灾害系统理论,利用遥感、气象和地理信息数据与技术建立致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力可靠性等4个因子的风险指数和模型,基于4个因子建立农业干旱灾害综合风险评估模型,在GIS平台下计算了干旱灾害综合风险指数。结果表明:西南地区干旱灾害风险格局模式具有明显的地带性和复杂性,全区并不一致,高风险区主要位于四川盆地和云贵川三省交界处,北部高于南部,东部高于西部,从西南到东北依次增加。随着干旱灾害综合风险指数的变化,干旱灾害风险的模式具有不同的格局。西南地区干旱灾害风险主要受复杂地形和多样气候带的影响,还受植被盖度、农业经济水平、土壤状况等地理环境影响,同时,喀斯特地貌和相对薄弱的抗旱能力也使得西南地区农业干旱灾害风险较高。
In the 21st century, the comprehensive loss rate of agriculture in drought disaster in southwestern China far exceeds the national average, which brings great risks to human life. Based on the theory of disaster system, using the remote sensing, meteorological and geographic information data and technology, this paper establishes the risk index of four factors including the hazard of hazard, the vulnerability of pregnant environment, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and the reliability of disaster prevention and mitigation capability and Model, a comprehensive risk assessment model of agricultural drought disaster was established based on four factors, and the comprehensive risk index of drought disaster was calculated under the GIS platform. The results show that the patterns of risk patterns of drought disasters in southwest China have obvious zonality and complexity, and the whole area is not consistent. The high-risk areas are mainly located at the junction of Sichuan Basin and Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan provinces. The northern part is higher than the southern part, the eastern part is higher than the western part, To the northeast in turn increase. With the change of comprehensive risk index of drought disaster, the patterns of drought disaster risk have different patterns. The risk of drought disaster in Southwest China is mainly affected by complex topography and diverse climatic zones. It is also affected by the geographical environment such as vegetation coverage, agricultural economy level and soil condition. At the same time, the karst landform and the relatively weak drought resistance capability also make the agricultural drought disaster in southwest China High risk.