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关注客户特征甚至同时跟随客户,既能促进公共信息含量及其质量的提高,又能获得某些私人信息,进而改善分析师盈余预测行为。基于企业层面的证据表明:(1)客户越稳定,分析师对企业的盈利预测越准确,预测分歧度与偏差度越小;(2)企业生产非耐用品、处于行业弱势地位、稳定客户销售占比较高以及与客户关系较好时,稳定客户对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响更显著;(3)稳定客户对分析师盈利预测准确性的影响,可能源自稳定客户对企业盈余以及盈利稳定性的提高。这说明稳定客户是分析师的重要信息来源,即使分析师不同时跟随客户,稳定客户对于分析师预测也有信号传递效应,有助于提高其对企业盈余预测的准确性。基于分析师层面的证据表明:相对于未同时跟随客户与企业的分析师,同时跟随客户与企业的分析师的预测偏差更低,而且这种关系主要体现在客户稳定组。此外在同时跟随客户与企业的样本中,稳定客户与分析师预测偏差负相关。这说明分析师同时跟随稳定客户,可获得供应链知识的溢出效应,从而降低分析师对企业盈利预测的偏误。这些研究结论有助于丰富客户和分析师文献。
Focusing on customer characteristics and even following clients at the same time can improve public information content and quality as well as gain some personal information to improve analyst earnings forecasting. Based on the evidence at the enterprise level, it shows that: (1) the more stable the client, the more accurate the analyst’s forecast of the company’s earnings and the smaller the forecast divergence and deviation. (2) The enterprise produces non-durable goods and is in a weak position in the industry to stabilize customer sales (3) the impact of stabilizing customers on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts may be due to the influence of stable clients on corporate earnings and earnings Stability improvement. This shows that stabilizing customers is an important source of information for analysts. Even if analysts do not follow clients at the same time, stable clients have signal-transmission effects on analyst forecasts, which helps to improve their accuracy in forecasting corporate earnings. Analysts at the analyst level show that, compared with analysts who do not follow both clients and firms, forecasts with both client and firm analysts tend to be less biased, and the relationship is mainly reflected in the Client Stabilization Group. In addition, in the samples that follow both the client and the business, the stable customer and analyst forecast bias are negatively correlated. This shows that analysts also follow the stability of customers, access to knowledge of the supply chain spillover effect, thereby reducing analysts’ bias in corporate earnings forecasts. These findings help to enrich the client and analyst literature.