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国债市场规模的扩大可以满足机构投资者的收益性和流动性偏好,机构投资者投资组合的调整使得国债具有影响信贷市场均衡的功效:国债收益率变化影响信贷市场利率和信贷市场均衡规模。实证研究表明,在协整关系上国债收益率和信贷资金增长率具有负相关关系,表明国债收益率上升对信贷资金增长率具有降低作用,不过效果不明显,不足以成为影响信贷市场资金规模的原因。国债收益率和信贷资金增长率不互为因果关系,这与中国国债规模偏小、持有者结构不合理和交易所国债市场逐渐边缘化的趋向有关。
The expansion of government bond market can meet the profitability and liquidity preference of institutional investors. The adjustment of institutional investors’ portfolio makes the government bonds have the effect of balance of credit market: the change of government bond yields affects the interest rate of credit market and the equilibrium scale of credit market. The empirical study shows that the negative correlation between the yield of government bonds and the growth rate of credit funds shows that the increase of government bond yields has a declining effect on the growth rate of credit funds but the effect is not obvious and it is not enough to become the capital that affects the credit market the reason. The yield of government bonds and the growth of credit funds are not causally related to each other. This is related to the small scale of China’s government bonds, the irrational structure of the holders and the gradual marginalization of the exchange bond market.