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为了实现矿井尺度煤与瓦斯突出预测,采用直接反映煤层受构造影响强弱3参数,煤层几何形态及其变化、构造煤发育及煤层变形程度,构建了构造运动强度对煤与瓦斯突出控制定量表征方法,并据潘一矿现场资料建立了其与煤与瓦斯突出预测指标关系。结果显示:煤与瓦斯突出危险性的综合指标与构造煤百分比和煤厚残差呈较好的正相关关系,而与构造曲率呈明显的负相关关系。在煤与瓦斯突出危险性的综合指数与反映构造运动强度3方面分析基础上,利用多元非线性回归方法构建了构造运动强度预测模型,模型检验结果显示构造运动强度指数与潘一矿13-1煤已发生煤与瓦斯动力现象位置对应较好,即均分布在构造强度大于18区域。基于此模型,预测潘一矿13-1煤层煤与瓦斯突出危险区域主要分布在中区9、15、13、14、18号钻孔区域附近。
In order to predict the coal and gas outburst in mine scale, the parameters of coal seam directly influencing the structure influence, the geometry of coal seam and its variation, the development of tectonic coal and the degree of coal seam deformation are established, and the quantitative characterization of tectonic motion intensity for controlling coal and gas outburst Method, and based on the field data of Panyi mine, it establishes its relationship with the prediction index of coal and gas outburst. The results show that the comprehensive index of the danger of coal and gas outburst shows a good positive correlation with the percentage of tectonic coal and the residual coal thickness, but negatively correlates with the tectonic curvature. Based on the analysis of comprehensive index of coal and gas outburst danger and tectonic intensity 3, the prediction model of tectonic activity intensity was established by using multivariate nonlinear regression method. The results of model test showed that the tectonic intensity index and the 13-1 Coal has occurred coal and gas dynamic phenomenon of the location of the corresponding better, that is, distribution in the tectonic intensity greater than 18 areas. Based on this model, it is predicted that the dangerous coal and gas outburst areas in coal seam 13-1 in Pan I ore are mainly distributed near the borehole No. 9, 15, 13, 14 and 18 in the Central Region.