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依据北京市2009年1月1日-2011年12月31日的逐日空气质量指数(AQI)与同时段常规地面气象观测数据,区分污染日与非污染日(以轻微污染下界为分界)、不同季节研究了AQI与气象要素的关系;应用分布滞后非线性模型与广义相加模型,在调整气温、相对湿度、风速等混杂效应的基础上,定量计算了AQI对呼吸系统急诊人数的影响及滞后效应.结果表明,研究时段北京AQI的年际波动并不明显,冬季中、重度污染易发;秋季空气优良率最低;春季易发生轻微污染.污染日AQI与平均气压、最高气压显著正相关,与气温、相对湿度负相关;非污染日,AQI与气压、平均/最大风速和日照时数负相关,而与气温、相对湿度、降水量正相关.就诊当天与滞后1 d的AQI对呼吸系统疾病的影响最显著,且危险度(RR)随污染物质量浓度的增大以接近线性形态增大.AQI指数每增加10,北京市呼吸系统急诊就诊人数的RR为0.22%,其95%置信区间为0.104%~0.342%.
According to the daily air quality index (AQI) of Beijing from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2011 and the conventional ground meteorological observation data of the same time period, the difference between the pollution day and the non-pollution day (divided by the light pollution lower bound) is different The relationship between AQI and meteorological elements was studied in season. Based on the mixed lag nonlinear model and generalized additive model, the effects of AQI on respiratory emergency population and the lagged effects were quantitatively calculated based on the mixed effects of temperature, relative humidity and wind speed The results showed that the interannual fluctuation of AQI in Beijing was not obvious during the study period, moderate and severe pollution occurred in winter, the lowest in autumn and the lowest in spring, and the AQI was significantly and positively correlated with mean barometric pressure and maximum barometric pressure Negative correlation with air temperature, relative humidity and precipitation.AQI was negatively correlated with air pressure, average / maximum wind speed and sunshine duration on non-contaminated days, but positively correlated with temperature, The most significant impact of disease, and the risk (RR) with the concentration of pollutants concentration increases in a nearly linear morphology.AQI index for each additional 10, Beijing Respiratory emergency attendance RR was 0.22% and the 95% confidence interval of 0.104% ~ 0.342%.