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目的建立我国道路交通伤害的预测模型,以期从宏观上掌握我国道路交通伤害的发生和变化趋势,为控制我国道路交通伤害提供参考依据。方法收集我国1951~2003年的道路交通伤害资料,进行时间序列分析,建立自回归-求和-移动平均模型(AR IM A模型)。结果建立了我国道路交通伤害事故数、万车死亡率和10万人死亡率各自的AR IM A模型方程,显示预测值与实际值接近。结论时间序列模型在道路交通伤害预测中具有较好的应用价值。
Objective To establish a prediction model of road traffic injuries in China in order to grasp the occurrence and changing trend of road traffic injuries in our country macroscopically and provide a reference for controlling road traffic injuries in China. Methods The data of road traffic injuries in China from 1951 to 2003 were collected and analyzed by time series to establish an ARIM A model. Results The AR IM A model equations for each of the number of road traffic injuries, the number of deaths per million and the death rate of 100,000 were established. The results show that the predicted value is close to the actual value. Conclusion The time series model has good application value in the prediction of road traffic injuries.