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Are these, our modern lives, what people decades ago, in another time, imagined they would be?
In some ways, the future is now. We all chat on our 1)Star Trek communicators, you can get a robot cleaner like Rosie from 2)The Jetsons, and 3)Survivor isn’t that different from 4)Running Man.
But predicting the future isn’t always so easy, not even for geniuses. In 1931, the New York Times asked a group of the world’s great thinkers to predict what life would be like in 2011: now. W. J. Mayo, a founder of the Mayo Clinic, predicted our 5)life expectancy, 59 years in 1931, would reach the Biblical
我们如今的这种生活，是不是就是几十年前，那个时代的人想象的生活呢？
从某些方面看来，未来就是现在。我们现在都用《星际迷航》里的通讯器聊天；你也可以拥有一个像《杰森一家》里的罗茜那样的机器人保姆；而《幸存者》节目跟《过关斩将》也没什么不同。
但就算是对天才来说，预测未来也并非易事。1931年，《纽约时报》采访了一群世界杰出的思想家，让他们预测2011年——也就是现在，我们的生活会是什么样子的。W·J·梅奥，梅奥诊所的创始人，预测我们的平均寿命（在1931年是59岁）将比
term of three-score and ten—70. The reality? Life expectancy in the US is now nearly 78. At a time when 35% of American homes were still heated by wood, Willis Whitney, who founded the research lab at General Electric, predicted by 2011 you would live in an electrically-heated, air-conditioned home, but he also added there would be an attached air-car hanger. Not quite. Henry Ford said that whatever 2011 produced, it would make 1931 seem 6)drab. Then, they had 7)Little Orphan Annie on the radio; we have 8)Jersey Shore.
(I love you Jersey Shore.)
Sociologist William Ogburn got closest. He predicted “the magic of remote control will be commonplace”and “the lives of women will be more
like those of men, spent more outside the
home.” In 1931, less than a quarter of women were in the labor force. Now it’s nearly 60%.
So what about 80 years from now? What will that be like? Will we finally be able to 9)beam, like Star Trek? Well, we might not have to.
Timothy Mack (President, World Future Society): Our mode of transportation will largely be virtual and through 10)holographic means. People will go to each other without moving from wherever they are.
Something to think about.
《圣经》所说的提高3至10年，也就是70岁。现实呢？现时美国人的平均寿命已经差不多达到78岁了。那时，35%的美国家庭仍然烧柴取暖，威利斯·惠特尼，通用电气公司研究实验室的创始人，预测到2011年人们会住在以电取暖，并且可以调节温度的家里，不过他还说未来会有装着吊架的飞行汽车。不完全正确。亨
利·福特则预测不管2011年会制造出什么，都会使得1931年看起
来沉闷乏味。那时，他们有广播剧《小孤儿安妮》，而现在我们有《泽西海岸》。
（我爱泽西海岸。）
社会学家威廉·奥格
本的预测是最接近的。他预测：“神奇的遥控”将会非常
普遍；并且女性的生活与男性的生活将会越来越接近，她们出门在外的时间会增多。”1931年，从事职业劳动的女性不到四分之一，现在则将近60%了。
那么，距离现在的80年后呢？那会是什么样子的？我们会不会像《星际迷航》里那样能发射电波？好吧，我们也许不需要那样做。
蒂莫西·麦克（世界未来组织主席）：我们的传输方式将主要通过虚拟和全息手段来实现。人们可以不用移动就去到另一个地方。
这真是一些值得思考的事情。
In some ways, the future is now. We all chat on our 1)Star Trek communicators, you can get a robot cleaner like Rosie from 2)The Jetsons, and 3)Survivor isn’t that different from 4)Running Man.
But predicting the future isn’t always so easy, not even for geniuses. In 1931, the New York Times asked a group of the world’s great thinkers to predict what life would be like in 2011: now. W. J. Mayo, a founder of the Mayo Clinic, predicted our 5)life expectancy, 59 years in 1931, would reach the Biblical
我们如今的这种生活，是不是就是几十年前，那个时代的人想象的生活呢？
从某些方面看来，未来就是现在。我们现在都用《星际迷航》里的通讯器聊天；你也可以拥有一个像《杰森一家》里的罗茜那样的机器人保姆；而《幸存者》节目跟《过关斩将》也没什么不同。
但就算是对天才来说，预测未来也并非易事。1931年，《纽约时报》采访了一群世界杰出的思想家，让他们预测2011年——也就是现在，我们的生活会是什么样子的。W·J·梅奥，梅奥诊所的创始人，预测我们的平均寿命（在1931年是59岁）将比
term of three-score and ten—70. The reality? Life expectancy in the US is now nearly 78. At a time when 35% of American homes were still heated by wood, Willis Whitney, who founded the research lab at General Electric, predicted by 2011 you would live in an electrically-heated, air-conditioned home, but he also added there would be an attached air-car hanger. Not quite. Henry Ford said that whatever 2011 produced, it would make 1931 seem 6)drab. Then, they had 7)Little Orphan Annie on the radio; we have 8)Jersey Shore.
(I love you Jersey Shore.)
Sociologist William Ogburn got closest. He predicted “the magic of remote control will be commonplace”and “the lives of women will be more
like those of men, spent more outside the
home.” In 1931, less than a quarter of women were in the labor force. Now it’s nearly 60%.
So what about 80 years from now? What will that be like? Will we finally be able to 9)beam, like Star Trek? Well, we might not have to.
Timothy Mack (President, World Future Society): Our mode of transportation will largely be virtual and through 10)holographic means. People will go to each other without moving from wherever they are.
Something to think about.
《圣经》所说的提高3至10年，也就是70岁。现实呢？现时美国人的平均寿命已经差不多达到78岁了。那时，35%的美国家庭仍然烧柴取暖，威利斯·惠特尼，通用电气公司研究实验室的创始人，预测到2011年人们会住在以电取暖，并且可以调节温度的家里，不过他还说未来会有装着吊架的飞行汽车。不完全正确。亨
利·福特则预测不管2011年会制造出什么，都会使得1931年看起
来沉闷乏味。那时，他们有广播剧《小孤儿安妮》，而现在我们有《泽西海岸》。
（我爱泽西海岸。）
社会学家威廉·奥格
本的预测是最接近的。他预测：“神奇的遥控”将会非常
普遍；并且女性的生活与男性的生活将会越来越接近，她们出门在外的时间会增多。”1931年，从事职业劳动的女性不到四分之一，现在则将近60%了。
那么，距离现在的80年后呢？那会是什么样子的？我们会不会像《星际迷航》里那样能发射电波？好吧，我们也许不需要那样做。
蒂莫西·麦克（世界未来组织主席）：我们的传输方式将主要通过虚拟和全息手段来实现。人们可以不用移动就去到另一个地方。
这真是一些值得思考的事情。