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新古典经济学的内生和外生增长理论都忽略了资源限制和技术发展的波样运动。人口动态学的逻辑斯蒂增长模型和物种竞争模型,能够提供一个演化分析框架,讨论市场份额竞争中技术小波所推进的经济增长。新古典经济学的干中学和知识积累模型忽略了技术进步的质变和间断性。知识的新陈代谢过程才能理解创造性毁灭。政策和制度在技术周期的不同阶段是共生演化过程(Co-evolution)。劳动分工受市场范围、资源种类和环境波动的限制。在生态-工业系统的稳定性与复杂性之间存在鱼和熊掌不可兼得的消长关系(Trade-off)。面对学习不确定性时,发展策略的多样性源于文化和环境的影响。西方的分工模式以劳动节约和资源密集型技术为特征,而亚洲和中国的分工模式以资源节约和劳动密集型为特征。非线性人口动态学整合了斯密、马尔萨斯和熊彼特的思想,为经济增长和技术发展提供了一个统一的演化理论。
Both the endogenous and exogenous growth theories of neoclassical economics ignore the wave-like movement of resource constraints and technological development. The logistic growth model and the species competition model of population dynamics can provide an evolutionary analysis framework to discuss the economic growth promoted by technical wavelets in the market share competition. The neoclassical economics model of learning by doing and knowledge accumulation ignores the qualitative change and discontinuity of technological progress. Knowledge of the metabolic process can understand the creative destruction. Policies and institutions are co-evolution at different stages of the technology cycle. The division of labor is limited by the scope of the market, the types of resources and the fluctuations in the environment. There is an unavoidable trade-off between the stability and complexity of eco-industrial systems. In the face of learning uncertainty, the diversity of development strategies stems from the impact of culture and the environment. The division of labor in the West is characterized by labor-saving and resource-intensive technologies, while the division of labor in Asia and China is characterized by resource conservation and labor-intensiveness. Nonlinear population dynamics integrates the ideas of Smith, Malthus and Schumpeter, providing a unified evolutionary theory for economic growth and technological development.