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本文选取的宏观经济指标主要包括工业、金融、投资、消费、收入、物价、出口、信心等方面的指标。选取的重点行业主要有传媒行业、化工行业、电力行业、房地产行业、钢铁行业等17个行业。本报告对宏观经济主要指标与重点行业增长指标之间的相关系数进行了排序和归类,可以看出,绝大部分变量之间的相关性都与经济理论和我们的预期较为吻合。比如,从宏观经济指标来看,与国民经济相关程度较高的行业主要有旅游、建材、传媒、原油、房地产、零售、软饮料和饮料、汽车零部件、造纸等行业;与固定资产投资额高度相关是建材,而汽车零部件、房地产、电力、汽车等行业与固定资产投资额则存在较强的相关性。另外,从重点行业来看,传媒行业主要受到金融、工业类宏观经济指标的影响,而房地产行业则与GDP和投资类宏观经济指标相关性较强。根据上述相关性排序和归类结果,通过综合比较分析,我们可以将17个重点行业划分为四类:投资品类(钢铁、建材、化工、电力、普通机械与汽车零部件、专用设备)、消费品类(房地产、汽车、软饮料和饮料、造纸)、资源类(煤炭、原油)和服务类(传媒、零售、旅游、通信、银行)。
The macroeconomic indicators selected in this paper mainly include indicators of industry, finance, investment, consumption, income, prices, exports, and confidence. Selected key industries are the media industry, chemical industry, power industry, real estate industry, steel industry and other 17 industries. This report ranks and classifies the correlation coefficients between the major macroeconomic indicators and the key sector indicators of growth. It can be seen that the correlation between the vast majority of variables is in line with economic theory and our expectation. For example, from the perspective of macroeconomic indicators, industries with higher degrees of correlation with the national economy mainly include tourism, building materials, media, crude oil, real estate, retail, soft drinks and beverages, auto parts, papermaking and other industries; and investments in fixed assets Relevant is building materials, while the auto parts, real estate, electric power, automobile and other industries and the amount of fixed assets investment there is a strong correlation. In addition, from the perspective of key industries, the media industry is mainly affected by the financial and industrial macroeconomic indicators, while the real estate industry is strongly correlated with macroeconomic indicators of GDP and investment. Based on the above correlation ranking and classification results, we can classify 17 key industries into four categories by comprehensive comparative analysis: investment category (steel, building materials, chemicals, electricity, general machinery and auto parts, special equipment), consumer goods (Real estate, cars, soft drinks and beverages, paper making), resources (coal, crude oil) and services (media, retail, travel, communications, banking).