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2011年7月天然橡胶市场走势略超预期,沪胶市场单边上涨,沪胶指数涨幅为10.69%,日胶指数涨幅为5.03%。推动市场走强的因素为:7月合成橡胶价格涨势明显,市场预期管理层可能出台新的汽车产业刺激政策,另外国内股市企稳也让市场判断货币调控可能放缓。8月市场形势更趋复杂:合成橡胶价格趋稳对天然橡胶市场的支撑力度略微弱化;国内经济下滑超出预期,但通胀高企的局面仍将延续,导致货币政策两难;新汽车产业刺激方案是否会出台仍存在不确定性;欧美复杂经济形势带来的困扰犹存。综合来看:7月市场上涨再次确认了30000元可能将成为沪胶市场年内的底部价位;在多空形势复杂化的情况下8月沪胶市场走势呈先抑后扬的高位震荡概率较大,下方支撑价位为34000元,上方阻力价位为37500元。
July 2011 natural rubber market trend slightly more than expected, Hujiao market unilateral rise, Hujiao index rose 10.69%, Japan plastic index rose 5.03%. The factors driving the market strength are: July synthetic rubber prices rose significantly, the market expects management may introduce a new auto industry stimulus policy, the other domestic stock market stabilization also allow the market to judge the currency regulation may slow down. August market conditions more complicated: the stabilization of synthetic rubber prices on the natural rubber market support slightly weaker; domestic economic downturn than expected, but the situation of high inflation will continue, leading to monetary policy dilemma; new auto industry stimulus package will be The promulgation still has the uncertainty; the troubles caused by the complex economic situation in Europe and the United States still exist. Taken together: the July market rise again confirmed the 30,000 yuan may be the bottom of the Hujiao market price during the year; in the case of long and short complications in August Hujiao market trend was higher than the first high-frequency shock after the higher probability of concussion , Below the support price of 34,000 yuan, the top of the resistance price of 37,500 yuan.