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随着中国对进口石油依赖度的逐渐增大,国际石油价格的波动对经济系统的冲击越来越受到政府部门和中外学者的密切关注。为了从数量上把握冲击的效果,本文基于一个实物部门与金融部门相统合的中国金融可计算性一般均衡(CGE)模型,结合三种不同的汇率机制(固定汇率、部分浮动汇率、完全浮动汇率)分别从宏观和产业层面定量分析石油价格波动对经济系统影响的综合效果,提出并评价应对石油价格波动的措施和建议,并提出相关政策含义。
As China gradually increases its dependence on imported oil, the impact of fluctuations in international oil prices on the economic system has drawn more and more attention from government departments and Chinese and foreign scholars. In order to quantitatively grasp the impact of shocks, this paper, based on a CGE model combining physical sector with financial sector, combines three different exchange rate mechanisms (fixed exchange rate, partial floating exchange rate, fully floating exchange rate ) Respectively quantitatively analyzed the comprehensive effect of the fluctuation of oil price on the economic system from the macro and industrial levels, put forward and evaluated the measures and suggestions to deal with the fluctuation of oil price, and put forward the relevant policy implications.