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本文通过选取经济形势衡量指标,从多个方面分析中美两国的对外贸易影响因素,构建多元线性回归模型,度量不同解释变量的影响程度,并且在比较中提出对中国未来发展的建议。模型结果表明,对于中国的进出口而言,汇率,国内生产总值(GDP),工业企业原材料燃料价格购买指数(PPIRM)与其有着显著的线性关系;对于美国的进出口贸易而言,国内生产总值,第三产业占比,消费者信心指数(CCI)以及工业企业原材料燃料价格购买指数(PPIR M)这都是较为显著的影响因素。这与中美两国不同的产业结构,整体的经济形势等相关联,对于中国而言,未来的产业结构改革,整体的经济形势判断尤为关键。
This paper analyzes the factors that influence the foreign trade between China and the United States from many aspects, constructs a multiple linear regression model and measures the influence degree of different explanatory variables through selecting the indicators of economic situation, and puts forward suggestions on the future development of China in the comparison. The model results show that the exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP) and PPIRM of industrial enterprises have a significant linear relationship with China’s import and export. For the U.S. import and export trade, the domestic production Gross value, tertiary industry share, consumer confidence index (CCI) and industrial enterprises’ raw material fuel price index (PPIR M) are all more significant factors. This is related to the different industrial structures in China and the United States as well as the overall economic situation. For China, the future reform of the industrial structure and the judgment of the overall economic situation are particularly crucial.