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目的探索ARIMA预测模型在医院早产儿情况统计分析中的应用,为医院管理、政策制订提供科学依据。方法构建ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)模型,运用ARIMA模型预测医院早产儿情况的发展趋势。结果 ARIMA模型预测未来两年医院早产儿情况有较大的上升趋势,且呈现较强的周期性。结论 ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)模型可以较好的拟合2005-2013年湖南省妇幼保健院医院早产儿情况的时间变化趋势,并预测了未来两年的发展趋势。ARIMA模型在医院早产儿情况的预测研究精度较高,是一种理想的研究方法。
Objective To explore the application of ARIMA prediction model in the statistical analysis of hospital premature infants and to provide a scientific basis for hospital management and policy making. Methods The ARIMA (2,1,1) (0,1,1) model was constructed, and the ARIMA model was used to predict the development trend of hospital premature infants. Results The ARIMA model predicts a large upward trend in the hospital premature infants in the next two years and shows a strong cyclicality. Conclusion The ARIMA (2,1,1) (0,1,1) model can well fit the trend of the time of premature infants in the MCH hospital in Hunan Province from 2005 to 2013 and predict the development trend in the next two years . ARIMA model in the hospital pre-term prediction of the situation of higher accuracy, is an ideal research method.