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本文采用时变贸易权重以及IMF提供的方法,对1980至2007年21个国家的基于单位劳动成本的实际有效汇率进行了测算。在测算基础上,分析了国际制造业贸易格局的基本变化,并将中国的单位劳动成本状况与同样在制造业贸易中表现突出的爱尔兰进行了比较。最后,估算了人民币快速大幅升值到不同水平对贸易竞争优势带来的折损程度。依赖于相对可靠的数据与完善的方法论模型,本文测算的结果提供了一个在多边环境中研究中国国际竞争力以及汇率问题的工具。
This paper uses the time-varying trade weights and the methods provided by the IMF to measure the real effective exchange rate based on unit labor costs in 21 countries from 1980 to 2007. On the basis of the calculations, the basic changes in the pattern of international manufacturing trade are analyzed, and the unit labor cost situation in China is compared with that of Ireland, which also performed well in manufacturing trade. Finally, the rapid appreciation of Renminbi to different levels of trade competitiveness advantage of the degree of damage. Relying on relatively reliable data and sound methodological models, the results of this paper provide a tool for studying China’s international competitiveness and exchange rate issues in a multilateral environment.