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目的:通过研究北京市医药分开试点方案对医生、病人和医院的影响,对病人就诊支出进行预测。方法:采用复杂适应系统仿真方法,构建病人单次和长期就诊支出的仿真模型。结果:病人就诊支出受自身经济能力、医生行为、自身行为和医院就诊人次四方面因素的影响。结论:新医改方案下,仿真为病人就诊支出的预测提供了一种便捷工具。
OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of Beijing’s pilot programs on the separation of doctors and patients and hospitals and to predict the expenditure on patient visits. Methods: A complex adaptive system simulation method was used to construct a simulation model of single-patient and long-term medical expenditures. Results: The expenditures for medical treatment were affected by four factors: self-economic ability, doctor’s behavior, self-behavior and hospital attendance. Conclusion: Under the new medical reform program, simulation provides a convenient tool for predicting patient’s medical expenses.