在供给侧改革的背景下,我国出口贸易的转型升级和教育资源的优化配置已经成为了当前改革的重要议题。基于此,在就贸易开放对教育选择的影响进行理论分析的基础上,利用中国居民家庭收入调查数据实证分析了贸易开放对青少年辍学选择的影响及其城乡差异。研究表明,总体而言贸易开放显著提高了青少年辍学的概率,并且在经济发展水平较低与教育制度不完善的农村地区青少年辍学率受到贸易开放的影响更为显著。这主要是由于当前低质量的贸易开放提供了大量廉价劳动力的就业空间,增加了青少年继续接受教育的机会成本。因此,贸易质量提高、贸易方式改变、贸易技术升级等贸易供给侧结构的改善,都能够在很大程度上抑制青少年的辍学概率,有利于我国人力资本的长期积累。 Against the background of supply-side reform, the transformation and upgrading of our country’s export trade and the optimal allocation of educational resources have become important topics for the current reform. Based on this, based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of trade liberalization on educational choices, this study empirically analyzes the impact of trade liberalization on the choices of young people dropping out of school and the differences between urban and rural areas based on the survey data of Chinese household incomes. Research shows that, overall, the opening up of trade has markedly increased the probability of dropping out of school for young people, and the dropout rate of young people in rural areas with low level of economic development and inadequate education system is more significantly affected by the opening up of trade. This is mainly due to the fact that the current low-quality trade liberalization provides plenty of employment space for cheap labor and increases the opportunity cost of adolescents’ continued access to education. Therefore, the improvement of the supply side structure of trade, such as the improvement of trade quality, the change of trade pattern and the upgrading of trade and technology, can largely inhibit the probability of dropping out of school for young people and is conducive to the long-term accumulation of human capital in our country.