本文根据2000—2006年30个省会城市(直辖市)经济发展指标的年度数据,利用聚类分析法判断了各城市的经济发展状态。针对流通业发展水平和经济发展水平各省会城市面板数据进行协整检验,检验表明流通业是城市经济发展的长期原因,但影响程度具有地区差异。构建误差修正模型,估计结果显示当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,各地区将以不同的调整力度将非均衡状态拉回到均衡状态。 Based on the annual data of economic development in 30 capital cities (municipality directly under the central government) from 2000 to 2006, this paper uses cluster analysis to judge the economic development of each city. According to the cointegration test of urban panel data of provincial capitals on the level of development of circulation industry and economic development level, the test shows that circulation industry is the long-term reason of urban economic development, but the degree of influence has regional differences. The error correction model is constructed. The estimation results show that when the short-term fluctuations deviate from the long-term equilibrium, the regions will pull the unbalanced state back to the equilibrium state with different adjustment efforts.