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近年来我国兔肉产量逐年增加,其价格变动幅度较大,养殖户无法把控价格走势,给养兔者带来许多困惑。通过对2001-2013年我国兔肉价格及其他主要肉类价格、饲料价格、GDP、CPI的变化情况统计分析,来判断我国兔肉价格与主要肉类价格、饲料价格、GDP、CPI的相关性,以期为我国兔肉价格预测起到导向作用。结果显示,我国兔肉价格走势与消费量较高的鸡肉和猪肉的价格分别呈高度相关和中度相关(r1=0.78,r2=0.19),且后两者间的相关性极高(r3=0.98);兔肉价格与豆粕价格和玉米价格分别呈高度相关(r4=0.51)和中度相关(r5=0.50),豆粕价格和玉米价格相关性极高(r6=1.0);另外,兔肉价格和GDP增长率间为中度相关(r7=0.54)。因此,预测兔肉价格可以将主要肉类价格、饲料原料价格、GDP增长率这三方面的变化趋势作为参考。
In recent years, China’s rabbit meat production increased year by year, the larger the price changes, farmers can not control the price movements, to bring a lot of rabbit confusion. Through the statistical analysis of the changes of rabbit meat price, feed price, GDP, CPI from 2001 to 2013 in our country, the correlation between the rabbit meat price and the main meat price, feed price, GDP, CPI in our country is judged , With a view to China’s rabbit meat prices play a guiding role. The results showed that the price of rabbit meat in China was highly correlated with the price of chicken and pork with high consumption (r1 = 0.78, r2 = 0.19), and the correlation between the latter two was very high (r3 = 0.98). Rabbit meat price was highly correlated with soybean meal price and corn price (r4 = 0.51) and moderate correlation (r5 = 0.50), soybean meal price was highly correlated with corn price (r6 = 1.0) There is a moderate correlation between price and GDP growth (r7 = 0.54). Therefore, the forecast of rabbit meat prices can be the main meat prices, feed raw material prices, GDP growth rate of these three trends as a reference.