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显性比较优势是中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒吗?文章基于美国对中国反倾销97起涉案产品样本,并引入非涉案395种10分位主要贸易品扩展样本,研究表明:(1)美国对中国产品反倾销当年主要集中在中国对美出口具有较强显性比较优势的涉案产品上;虽然遭受美国反倾销,但中国在35起涉案产品对美出口上仍保持着较强的显性比较优势,不过有27起涉案产品已丧失较强的显性优势。(2)扩展样本后各影响因素对美国对中国产品反倾销概率的影响程度减少,避免了样本选择的有偏性。相比来看,美国对中国产品j贸易逆差是美国ITC裁决行业损害、签发反倾销指令的最重要决定因素,是美国对中国产品反倾销的直接诱因。而显性比较优势只是影响因素之一,并不是中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒。美国工业生产增长率下滑、失业率上升是其他影响因素,并且次贷危机也是重要影响因素。
Based on the U.S. product samples of 97 anti-dumping cases involving the United States and the introduction of an expanded sample of 395 non-involved 10-point major trade products, the study shows that: (1) The anti-dumping of Chinese products was mainly concentrated on the products involved in the Chinese exports to the United States that had a comparatively strong comparative advantage. Despite the anti-dumping efforts by the United States, China still maintained a strong dominant comparative advantage in the export of 35 products to the United States. However, there are 27 cases involving the product has lost a strong dominant advantage. (2) After the sample is extended, the impact of each influencing factor on the anti-dumping probability of Chinese products in the United States is reduced, which avoids the biasedness of sample selection. In contrast, the U.S. trade deficit with Chinese products is the most important determinant of ITC’s industry damage and the issuance of anti-dumping orders. It is a direct inducement by the United States on anti-dumping of Chinese products. However, the dominant comparative advantage is only one of the factors that affect the Chinese product’s anti-dumping curse. The rate of growth of industrial production in the United States is declining, the unemployment rate is the other influencing factor, and the subprime mortgage crisis is also an important factor.